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  1. A couple of weeks ago, I received an email. It was from myself, having sent it precisely a year before, packed full of predictions for the coming year: learn to do a backflip (90% likely) still living in Cambridge, UK (75%) England to win the football world cup (5%) (...) I wrote it to see how my view of the future would compare with how events actually turn out. The results showed me a lot about how we see the future, so I'm sharing them with the community here On average the predictions were reasonable. Out of 8 items I'd considered to be 40% likely, 3 happened (38%). Out of 12 thi
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