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  1. Guys, under normal circumstances, I think this thread would be a great idea for injury advice and so on. This is not normal circumstances this year. Real talk. The coronavirus is a problem. If you're in the UK, your government's "we're planning to sit back and see who dies" response is a problem. If you're in the US, your government's response is an even bigger problem. (And it's likely to get worse, not better.) They're actively steering the car off the cliff. I hear ya that this feels overblown. It does. Everything feels normal. But I do trust data, and data tells me this is my risk perception that's at fault. I don't have experience that matches any idea of this risk or this government response. The other issue is cultural. We tend to calculate risk in terms of "me and my loved ones", not in terms of community statistics. Like voting, our actions form a part of community statistics that has a much broader impact than our individual vote. You will never know if you were necessary to the problem or the solution when the coronavirus hits your community. You will only know which you voted for. So. Numbers. It's generally accepted that 60-70% of the population will get the coronavirus. For most of them, it won't be too bad, maybe bad bronchitis. But the fatality rate is high. On the conservative end, based on current US response, we're looking at about 1% of the entire US population in the next 12-18 months. On the less conservative end, we're looking at 2-3% of the US population. (In contrast, if we'd emulated measures taken by South Korea, we'd be looking at projections more like 0.4% of the population, 5-10x fewer people. So community management helps.) I don't know about you, but the idea of 1% of the population dying in the next year - let alone up to 3% - is a little mindblowing. I'm not sure I can wrap my head around that. Here's one of the big differences in outcome, when it comes to fatalities: You're probably going to hear more and more about flattening the curve, because, unlike previous crises, there is no top-down crisis management effort to accomplish this. Some states are stepping up, some businesses and universities, but mostly it's now on us. Two more posts following: one on taking care of yourself, the other on taking care of your community.
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