WhiteGhost: Left 4 Dead

[Mad Hatter]

3 hours ago, Mr_Willes said:

that would mean Europe will face an even worse scenario!

It already is worse.

 

Thanks for that write up, I've been wondering about that too.

 

 

 

[sarakingdom]

38 minutes ago, Mr_Willes said:

I guess you mean on top of the usual deaths, i really hope you are wrong, but i'm not gonna argue with it, cause in the back of my mind i know this could definitely be the outcome...

 

I very much hope it's not the case, but I trust that the data I'm basing this on is reputable. Actually, I just saw a graph that shows the US growth curve as even more catastrophic than Italy's. And our health care system is less prepared, which will just be a bloodbath. It hasn't even begun, and the hospitals are out of protective equipment and often ventilators.

 

41 minutes ago, Mr_Willes said:

I have to look at those, i haven't seen them pop up yet (got any good sources? --> DM)

 

I haven't really been saving them after I read them. But I've seen South Korea pointed out as a democracy doing it very, very efficiently. Their first case and the US's first case were diagnosed the same day. They're done, we have a year of lockdown ahead of us.

 

[raptron]

I've been enjoying this series of posts about mitigation/suppression strategies and definitely recommend my fellow American rebels and European folks give it a look if you haven't:

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56

 

The numbers are still very dire, but there is the suggestion of a good strategy to return to normalcy without months of lockdown.

 

[starsapart]

The Chinese system of registration sounds like the Russian system, which I guess makes sense given some similar political roots.

[Manarelle]

4 hours ago, raptron said:

I've been enjoying this series of posts about mitigation/suppression strategies and definitely recommend my fellow American rebels and European folks give it a look if you haven't:

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56

 

The numbers are still very dire, but there is the suggestion of a good strategy to return to normalcy without months of lockdown.

 

 

Good article. I am pessimistic about any such measures being implemented, but I've been wrong before - would love to be wrong again here. 

[Tanktimus the Encourager]

Regarding threadjacking: It's Whiteghost's thread, he can decide what he does or doesn't want on here.

[WhiteGhost]

  

15 hours ago, Mr_Willes said:

 

Thanks for the clarification, that eases my mind a little!

 

 

We have our own partial lockdown, but i'm treating it as a somewhat full lockdown. We don't leave house except for vital things, shopping (though i'm looking into ordering groceries in) working (my wife works in hospital, unfortunately), and my occasional run (which will be skipped if it get's more dangerous).

 

My plan is to keep this way for the upcoming time (fresh news from our main virologist, who i think of pretty highly says we will be in this situation for at least 10 weeks), and only relieving it when the ICU's are showing signs of relievement (just heard news, in Belgium we have 1900 ICU places, and there are just under 200 occupied at the moment).

 

Just gonna take one day at a time now.

One day at a time seems like the appropriate rate of approach  

 

15 hours ago, sarakingdom said:

 

It absolutely will. I'm fully expecting a minimum of 3% of the entire US population to die in the next 12-18 months. My understanding is that if it goes badly and the hospitals are overwhelmed, and I think that's exceedingly likely, that could rise to as high as 18%. Of the total US population. (This, combined with certain news today about why the spread is doing to be so bad in the US that I will not go into on NF because it is not actionable or helpful, is why I'm so angry today. I plan to be angry for at least a few weeks. Maybe forever.)

 

On top of that, for some reason, more young people are dying in the West than expected.

 

If you're concerned about the reliability of numbers from China, look at South Korea, Japan, Singapore, etc. South Korea had it under control super fast. They shut it down like a boss, apparently.

I have a feeling this is going to get very ugly before the end

 

15 hours ago, deftona said:

 

And also in Iran, where up to 40% of deaths have been younger people with no underlying medical conditions. I feel like the insistence of every Western government that it's only really killing older people with underlying conditions has always been a little dodgy and more about reassurance than anything else. 

I have a theory that I have never seen discussed in any media, but the deaths seem to correlate with the percentage of the population that smokes.  I suspect the risks to smokers may be much higher than is currently recognized.

 

14 hours ago, sarakingdom said:

 

I believe I saw the explanation that an overly strong immune system goes crazy trying to shut it down, and then organ failure. Or something like that.

 

My survival plan is basically "be average, be lucky, be prepared for the symptoms I can prepare for, and sleep a ton". But I think I isolated relatively early, and my opportunities for exposure before that were limited. (Thank goodness, because apparently not scratching your nose ever is as hard as another moonshot.) I should know in another week or so if I wasn't in time.

Sounds like about as good a plan as you can have right now.

 

13 hours ago, Mr_Willes said:

First of all to @WhiteGhost sorry for the threadhijack ( @Tanktimus the Encourager is there a seperate thread for this, or should we start one?)

 

Have you seen my thread title?  This whole thread has pretty much just been a Covid discussion, starting from back before it was cool to discuss this stuff   

 

13 hours ago, Mad Hatter said:

It already is worse.

 

Thanks for that write up, I've been wondering about that too.

 

I'm glad it wasn't a waste of time

 

12 hours ago, sarakingdom said:

 

I very much hope it's not the case, but I trust that the data I'm basing this on is reputable. Actually, I just saw a graph that shows the US growth curve as even more catastrophic than Italy's. And our health care system is less prepared, which will just be a bloodbath. It hasn't even begun, and the hospitals are out of protective equipment and often ventilators.

 

 

I haven't really been saving them after I read them. But I've seen South Korea pointed out as a democracy doing it very, very efficiently. Their first case and the US's first case were diagnosed the same day. They're done, we have a year of lockdown ahead of us.

 

Let's all hope that it isn't the case

 

10 hours ago, raptron said:

I've been enjoying this series of posts about mitigation/suppression strategies and definitely recommend my fellow American rebels and European folks give it a look if you haven't:

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56

 

The numbers are still very dire, but there is the suggestion of a good strategy to return to normalcy without months of lockdown.

 

I liked that article and found it quite informative.  However, the biggest difference I have seen in places where this strategy has worked vs places where it hasn't been implemented:  China, South Korea, Singapore and the like have ingrained cultural respect for authority.  Trust of both the government and the police is much higher than in most Western Countries.  I honestly hope that more people read and understand that article, because it is really, really important. 

 

10 hours ago, starsapart said:

The Chinese system of registration sounds like the Russian system, which I guess makes sense given some similar political roots.

Probably not a coincidence  

 

6 hours ago, Manarelle said:

 

Good article. I am pessimistic about any such measures being implemented, but I've been wrong before - would love to be wrong again here. 

Same, would love to be wrong about this one

 

5 hours ago, Tanktimus the Encourager said:

Regarding threadjacking: It's Whiteghost's thread, he can decide what he does or doesn't want on here.

Covid discussion is pretty much the only thing I have on here  

 

Friday

 

I did a push workout in the morning and then spent most of the afternoon playing xbox.     

[Mad Hatter]

4 hours ago, WhiteGhost said:

I have a theory that I have never seen discussed in any media, but the deaths seem to correlate with the percentage of the population that smokes.  I suspect the risks to smokers may be much higher than is currently recognized.

I haven't seen it discussed either, but when I googled it there does seem to be a lot of support for that theory.

[Lara]

21 hours ago, Mr_Willes said:

Also apparently Germany has a very low infected/death ratio apparently, which could also be cause they are still testing a lot more there. In comparison to Italy where there are much more elderly apparently. Also Germany has a pretty high amount of ICU places with respiratory devices (13 times more than Belgium, with only 11,5 times more people).

If I may, I would add something here. Germany has indeed a much better ratio of ICU beds than most European countries, and they are also doing way more tests than other european countries, which helps to keep the mortality rate low despite the high infection rates, added to the average age of the population being lower than in Italy, but it has also been reported that Germany is not counting as deaths by coronavirus those that have other pathologies associated that have been aggravated by the virus, but they are reported as dead by those other pathologies, while in Spain and Italy, any person dead with coronavirus counts as dead by the virus, no matter what other previous conditions.

[WhiteGhost]

20 hours ago, Mad Hatter said:

I haven't seen it discussed either, but when I googled it there does seem to be a lot of support for that theory.

Even if true, I suspect it will take a long time before it gets reported, if ever.  

 

18 hours ago, zenLara said:

If I may, I would add something here. Germany has indeed a much better ratio of ICU beds than most European countries, and they are also doing way more tests than other european countries, which helps to keep the mortality rate low despite the high infection rates, added to the average age of the population being lower than in Italy, but it has also been reported that Germany is not counting as deaths by coronavirus those that have other pathologies associated that have been aggravated by the virus, but they are reported as dead by those other pathologies, while in Spain and Italy, any person dead with coronavirus counts as dead by the virus, no matter what other previous conditions.

The old epidemic response team in Wuhan was doing that before they got sacked.  That wasn't the primary driver for getting sacked, but it was one of challenges the new guys had to deal with as they corrected the numbers

 

Saturday

 

Yesterday was another pretty slow and relaxed day.  Ghostlet and I spent some time playing with Legos and then some more time coaching him on Skyrim.   Ghostess has hired a "coach" to help her manage her eating (similar to the NF private coaching program) and she decided to throw away all of the ice cream bars she had in the freezer.  Instead of just throwing them out, I used the melted ice cream to make some chocolate chip cookies.  They aren't the best cookies I have ever made, but they sure are the fluffiest.  I think I may have eaten more than I should have, especially because Ghostess wasn't having any.

[Mad Hatter]

3 hours ago, WhiteGhost said:

I think I may have eaten more than I should have, especially because Ghostess wasn't having any.

Taking one for the team.

[WhiteGhost]

16 hours ago, Mad Hatter said:

Taking one for the team.

More like taking 7-8 for the team....  

 

Sunday

 

Started the day with tele-church which was nice. 

 

I didn't play any skyrim in the afternoon, but I did break out Oblivion and tried that out for a bit.  I finally made it through the tutorial...

 

Challenge wrap up:

 

Did I even have a challenge?  I literally cannot even remember a single goal I had and I can't bother to go back and look.  If my goal was to play loads and loads of Skyrim then I totally nailed it.  

 

New challenge is up: