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The Hero of Time pulls himself together, writes more stories, gets stronger... and practises social distancing in the royal tomb


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Coronavirus

 

We start this challenge with a public information broadcast.

 

The COVID-19 pandemic has already caused over 22,000 deaths, there are almost 500,000 confirmed cases, and it is growing exponentially. For selected countries, I'm going to post the growth-rate, for the previous seven days, and a four week projection of that growth rate. I'll update the numbers each Monday of the challenge.

 

Daily growth rate

 

Why is the growth rate so important? It tells us where we're going. Changes in the growth rate also tell us where we are on the sigmoid curve of the pandemic. Unless there's a steady decline in the growth rate, then we know we're still in the middle of this.

 

As explained on the Sciencing web site, the seven day growth rate can be calculated with the equation g = 7th root of (C2/C1) where C2 is the number of cases yesterday, and C1 is the number of cases 7 days prior. It's the 7th root because we're dealing with a period of 7 days.

 

For instance, the number of confirmed cases worldwide, yesterday, was 468,868. Seven days prior, on the 18th, it was 218,358. g = 7th root of (468.868/218,358). This gives us 1.115.

 

Seven-day growth rates

| Region       | Cases growth rate | Deaths growth rate |
|--------------+-------------------+--------------------|
| World        |             1.115 |              1.131 |
| Italy        |             1.111 |              1.141 |
| US           |             1.331 |              1.318 |
| UK           |             1.204 |              1.239 |
| Netherlands  |             1.177 |              1.296 |
| South Africa |             1.295 |                0.0 |

Projections

 

You can get a prediction of the numbers at some point in the future by using the equation C1 = C0 x g^n where C0 is the number of cases (or deaths) at day zero (I'll use yesterday's numbers), g is the growth rate, and n is the number of days after C0 that you want to predict.

| Region       | Cases as of yesterday | Cases after 1 week | Cases after 4 weeks |
|--------------+-----------------------+--------------------+---------------------|
| World        |               468,868 |          1,004,557 |           9,879,771 |
| Italy        |                74,386 |            155,414 |           1,417,375 |
| US           |                66,117 |            489,282 |         198,289.032 |
| UK           |                 9,667 |             35,455 |           1,749,175 |
| Netherlands  |                 6,431 |             20,124 |             616,622 |
| South Africa |                   709 |              4,331 |             986,733 |

| Region       | Deaths as of yesterday | Deaths after 1 week | Deaths after 4 weeks |
|--------------+------------------------+---------------------+----------------------|
| World        |                 21,209 |              50,206 |              665,998 |
| Italy        |                  7,503 |              18,890 |              301,462 |
| US           |                    947 |               6,543 |            2,157,652 |
| UK           |                    465 |               2,084 |              187,693 |
| Netherlands  |                    357 |               2,192 |              507,701 |
| South Africa |                      0 |                   0 |                    0 |

I haven't bothered with a 12-week projection because the numbers just become silly.

 

Bear in mind that the 'Cases' mentioned here are only confirmed cases. A rough estimate is that 10 times as many are infected as have been confirmed. You can see that, at current growth rates, COVID-19 would sweep through the whole US population well within 4 weeks. You can also see that the US has the potential drastically to increase world-wide figures.

 

Conclusion

 

It's right that governments have compared this to wartime. This disease has already caused too many deaths and will cause a heartbreaking number more.

 

There is only one way to change its course, and that is to reduce those growth rates. That will happen in one of two ways. Either the population will become saturated with infections, and the virus will find it more difficult to find an uninfected host, or all of us have less contact and the virus is presented with fewer uninfected hosts. You might have the disease and you wouldn't know it for about a week. You can see from the above figures just how much difference a week makes.

 

I'll leave you with the following graphic:

 

_111410425_distancing-nc.png

 

Stay at home and save a life.

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Current Challenge: More treasure-hunting in Kakariko graveyard

Epic Quest: Kokiri Forest | Great Deku Tree | Great Deku Tree, part 2 - boss fight | Meeting Princess Zelda | In the royal tomb | Still in the royal tomb | Treasure-hunting in Kakariko graveyard

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"A sword wields no strength unless the hand that holds it has courage." --- Hero's Shade, The Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess.

 

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I help research into the Coronavirus with Rosetta@home and World Community Grid. You can too.

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The Hero of Time exercises Social Distancing with ReDeads.

 

Spoilers for The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time:

 

Spoiler

Agony drags my mind back to consciousness. Somehow, I'm still alive. Every part of my body competes to tell me that it is in the most pain, that it has suffered most. I'm alive, but can I move? Braving the discomfort, I stretch my limbs and take a deep breath. I cannot detect any broken bones. Given the crushing force of my flesh-less assailant's embrace, that seems like a miracle.


Aching cold joins the clamouring protests from my body. Who knows how long I've been unconscious on this stone floor? The lugubrious chants of my undead companions penetrate the fog of pain and I'm reminded of my perilous situation. Trying not to groan, I climb to my feet, retrieving my sword from the floor nearby. The creatures seem unaware of my presence, but I know that can change in an instant. They are scattered around the chamber and I start to move past, limping and grimacing with each stop. As if they carry some highly contagious disease, I make sure to keep a distance of at least two metres from each.


Almost to the other side, Navi's light faintly illuminating the door to the next chamber, my heart sinks as I see a haphazard line of the creatures stretching between the walls. There is no gap where I can sneak through. If I want to progress, I have no choice; I must break the line. There is one of the creatures that has its back to me. There's just enough room between its neighbours. Perhaps, if I approach from behind, I can strike before it's aware of my presence.


Tip-toeing forward, I realize I'm holding my breath. My eyes fixed, unblinking, upon my target, I raise my sword, ready to strike.

 

All characters owned by Nintendo

 

 

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Current Challenge: More treasure-hunting in Kakariko graveyard

Epic Quest: Kokiri Forest | Great Deku Tree | Great Deku Tree, part 2 - boss fight | Meeting Princess Zelda | In the royal tomb | Still in the royal tomb | Treasure-hunting in Kakariko graveyard

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"A sword wields no strength unless the hand that holds it has courage." --- Hero's Shade, The Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess.

 

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I help research into the Coronavirus with Rosetta@home and World Community Grid. You can too.

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Right, it's time to set out the challenge.


For those of you who haven't been around for my previous challenges, I'm a guy who, when he turned forty, remembered that he'd always wanted to be good enough at writing to be published. I'm writing short stories until some of them get published; then I'll start thinking about novels. I always wanted to make 3D games, so that's in there. I've realized that I need to do something about my body (I'm not overweight, just not very active) if I want it to be useful as I get older.


Quest 1: write the two stories that I planned out in the previous challenge


I planned to write two stories for the previous challenge, but I didn't get that far. I'll write them in this challenge. Also, I hope to plan two stories for the next challenge.


Quest 2: rig the Link character from the previous challenge and make it movable in Godot


This is to gain experience with the workflow of using Godot to control assets modelled in Blender. This will also be my first time controlling a complex, limbed model in Godot.


Quest 3: increase the weight on my dumbbells


It doesn't matter by how much, just as long as they're heavier by the end of the challenge than they are now.


Quest 4: do my Interval Training


I'm not going to commit to increasing the length of my Interval Training sessions. My challenge is simply to do them consistently. I'm thinking that, if I do 8 out of 10, I'll consider that a win.


Quest 5: do something to do with brain fitness


Brain fitness, mental health, whatever you want to call it.


I'm an anxious person. I probably have Generalized Anxiety Disorder. I have a lot of trouble getting to sleep, which hasn't been helped by the Coronavirus situation. I want this situation to be a little better at the end of the challenge than it is now. Specifically, I want to choose something to do with Mindfulness, and implement it during the challenge. Well, that wasn't very specific, but you get the idea.


Scoring


I was inspired by @Jarric's Ziggurat of the Dead. In keeping with my theme for this challenge, I'm going to have a Ziggurat of the ReDead. My first job will be to decide the structure of said ziggurat.

 

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Current Challenge: More treasure-hunting in Kakariko graveyard

Epic Quest: Kokiri Forest | Great Deku Tree | Great Deku Tree, part 2 - boss fight | Meeting Princess Zelda | In the royal tomb | Still in the royal tomb | Treasure-hunting in Kakariko graveyard

___

 

"A sword wields no strength unless the hand that holds it has courage." --- Hero's Shade, The Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess.

 

___

 

I help research into the Coronavirus with Rosetta@home and World Community Grid. You can too.

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1 hour ago, The Hero of Time said:

I was inspired by @Jarric's Ziggurat of the Dead. In keeping with my theme for this challenge, I'm going to have a Ziggurat of the ReDead. My first job will be to decide the structure of said ziggurat.

 

Glad I could be of help, hope it works well for you!

 

For my ziggurat I thought about what was most important for me to do, and what was easiest for me to do. No point having something impossible at the bottom and losing points for everything because of it, but I like the threat of making the bottom thing a must-do.

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Don't say "I don't have enough time", say instead "that's not a priority right now" and see how that makes you feel.

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Well, we have two deaths for South Africa so far, but in just one week (last week) our cases have increased with more than 100 per day! The majority of people just don't seem to understand the situation. From yesterday (Sunday) to today (Monday), there were only 93 new cases. So maybe things are changing going forward? I'm checking every other, other day on the South African Health Whatsapp group, specifically set up for Corona.

 

Anyway... going to try and check in more regularly with you than I did last challenge.

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Mrs. Van's Latest Challenge

 

 

Zechariah 4:6

"Not by might, nor by power, but by My spirit, saith the Lord."

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Coronavirus update

 

We're a week into a the lockdown, here in the UK. It looks as if people are starting to take it a bit more seriously. Having said that, although things are quieter, I'm not convinced that all the traffic on the road is from essential travel. I've just spent a fair chunk time in social-distancing queues trying to find eggs for the first time since last weekend (I did manage to find some). Most people were keeping their distance, but there was a little old lady in the checkout queue who seemed completely oblivious.

 

Daily growth rates

 

These are the daily growth rates calculated for the seven days of Sunday to Sunday. As mentioned previously, these are more relevant than the overall numbers for working out where we are in the pandemic.

| Region       | Cases growth rate | Deaths growth rate |
|--------------+-------------------+--------------------|
| World        |             1.115 |              1.128 |
| Italy        |             1.074 |              1.102 |
| US           |             1.231 |              1.286 |
| UK           |             1.194 |              1.235 |
| Netherlands  |             1.146 |              1.231 |
| South Africa |             1.246 |                N/A |

Although South Africa has had its first deaths from COVID-19, we're unable to calculate a deaths growth rate because there hadn't been any seven days ago.

 

Projections

| Region       |  Cases as of yesterday | after 1 week | after 4 weeks |
|--------------+------------------------+--------------+---------------|
| World        |                722,461 |    1,549,121 |    15,272,069 |
| Italy        |                 97,689 |      161,371 |       727,380 |
| US           |                141,935 |      606,337 |    47,270,182 |
| UK           |                 19,930 |       69,151 |     2,888,543 |
| Netherlands  |                 10,930 |       28,336 |       493,740 |
| South Africa |                  1,280 |        5,980 |       609,604 |

| Region       | Deaths as of yesterday | after 1 week | after 4 weeks |
|--------------+------------------------+--------------+---------------|
| World        |                 33,992 |       78,844 |       983,876 |
| Italy        |                 10,779 |       21,217 |       161,822 |
| US           |                  2,484 |       14,450 |     2,844,764 |
| UK           |                  1,238 |        5,435 |       459,840 |
| Netherlands  |                    772 |        3,311 |       261,214 |
| South Africa |                      2 |          N/A |           N/A |

These are simple projections using the current growth rates and don't involve any modelling of human behaviour or saturation of infections. They should, however, serve as a reminder that we need to do everything we can to keep those growth rates down. A small change to the growth rates can save thousands of lives.

 

Conclusions

 

We won't have a week-on-week comparison until next Monday, but you can see that the growth rates are down a little on the numbers I posted last Thursday. This is reason for hope but not for complacency. The only reason these growth rates will be pushed down is the difficult decisions we make.

 

The US growth rates I posted last Thursday were probably inflated due to the fact that, after a woefully inadequate start with inadequate testing kits, they had started testing in decent numbers and with kits that worked. The growth rate is starting to settle but the numbers are still scary.

 

It is usually difficult to see into the future, but the Coronavirus has provided us with frightening precognition. In Europe, that future is Italy, with a health-care system that is overwhelmed and tens of thousands of deaths. In America, that future is New York with health-care professionals begging for protective gear and scenes in hospitals described as "apocalyptic". Thankfully, however, there is a lesson to be learned from John Connor:

Quote

The future is not set. There is no fate but what we make for ourselves.

 

We can change our fate by making the hard choices. Don't accept the invitation to the BBQ. Don't hug your life-long friend. Assume you have the virus. Assume those you meet have the virus. It may become all too true all too soon.

 

Okay, nagging-dad mode over.

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Current Challenge: More treasure-hunting in Kakariko graveyard

Epic Quest: Kokiri Forest | Great Deku Tree | Great Deku Tree, part 2 - boss fight | Meeting Princess Zelda | In the royal tomb | Still in the royal tomb | Treasure-hunting in Kakariko graveyard

___

 

"A sword wields no strength unless the hand that holds it has courage." --- Hero's Shade, The Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess.

 

___

 

I help research into the Coronavirus with Rosetta@home and World Community Grid. You can too.

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On 3/27/2020 at 5:21 PM, Jarric said:

For my ziggurat I thought about what was most important for me to do, and what was easiest for me to do. No point having something impossible at the bottom and losing points for everything because of it, but I like the threat of making the bottom thing a must-do.

 

Thanks Jarric. That's a useful insight into how I should structure it.

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Current Challenge: More treasure-hunting in Kakariko graveyard

Epic Quest: Kokiri Forest | Great Deku Tree | Great Deku Tree, part 2 - boss fight | Meeting Princess Zelda | In the royal tomb | Still in the royal tomb | Treasure-hunting in Kakariko graveyard

___

 

"A sword wields no strength unless the hand that holds it has courage." --- Hero's Shade, The Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess.

 

___

 

I help research into the Coronavirus with Rosetta@home and World Community Grid. You can too.

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Right, let's build this Ziggurat of the ReDead. It's my first ziggurat but we'll see how it goes.

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

xxxxxxxxxxx--Exercise--xxxxxxxxxxx

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx--Brain fitness--xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx--Blender Link character--xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx--Writing--xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

Yes, I did copy and paste your ziggurat, Jarric.

 

I want the XPs to add up to 100 points, so that I can level up with a successful challenge, so let's break it down.

  • Writing - 40XP - this is the most important quest and that's reflected in the points
  • Blender link character - 20XP
  • brain fitness - 20XP
  • exercise - 20XP

Update

 

Yesterday was a busy day, so I managed only to do a bit on writing and a bit on the Link character. No brain fitness and no exercise.

Current Challenge: More treasure-hunting in Kakariko graveyard

Epic Quest: Kokiri Forest | Great Deku Tree | Great Deku Tree, part 2 - boss fight | Meeting Princess Zelda | In the royal tomb | Still in the royal tomb | Treasure-hunting in Kakariko graveyard

___

 

"A sword wields no strength unless the hand that holds it has courage." --- Hero's Shade, The Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess.

 

___

 

I help research into the Coronavirus with Rosetta@home and World Community Grid. You can too.

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23 hours ago, ElizeElvinFoxRyder said:

The majority of people just don't seem to understand the situation.

 

We had that over here when the lockdown started. People were crowded together on the beach and in underground trains. It's better now but people may start to tire of the process.

 

23 hours ago, ElizeElvinFoxRyder said:

So maybe things are changing going forward?

 

Your cases growth rate is fairly high at the moment, but that may be due to a ramp-up in widespread testing (I haven't checked that detail).

 

23 hours ago, ElizeElvinFoxRyder said:

Anyway... going to try and check in more regularly with you than I did last challenge.

 

I look forward to having you around and I'll try to do likewise. 🙂

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Current Challenge: More treasure-hunting in Kakariko graveyard

Epic Quest: Kokiri Forest | Great Deku Tree | Great Deku Tree, part 2 - boss fight | Meeting Princess Zelda | In the royal tomb | Still in the royal tomb | Treasure-hunting in Kakariko graveyard

___

 

"A sword wields no strength unless the hand that holds it has courage." --- Hero's Shade, The Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess.

 

___

 

I help research into the Coronavirus with Rosetta@home and World Community Grid. You can too.

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Update

 

Yesterday was fairly busy, too. However, I managed to do a bit on the writing quest, mainly making notes about ideas I'd had for the refugee story line. Also, I merged the meshes of the Link model into one object--this enables me to rig it and export it to Godot. I did learn that I had to go through and make sure to go through and hit "apply" on all meshes that had the mirror modifier, otherwise half the mesh disappeared.

 

I didn't do anything on mindfulness. I went for a walk with my wife rather than doing my interval training (I wouldn't have scored points anyway, because I didn't do the brain fitness part).

 

We're binge-watching the final season of Scorpion at the moment. It makes me laugh a lot but it's curious to me that their target audience are the very people who will see all the plot holes from their lax approach to science.

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Current Challenge: More treasure-hunting in Kakariko graveyard

Epic Quest: Kokiri Forest | Great Deku Tree | Great Deku Tree, part 2 - boss fight | Meeting Princess Zelda | In the royal tomb | Still in the royal tomb | Treasure-hunting in Kakariko graveyard

___

 

"A sword wields no strength unless the hand that holds it has courage." --- Hero's Shade, The Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess.

 

___

 

I help research into the Coronavirus with Rosetta@home and World Community Grid. You can too.

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Update

 

Yesterday was better.

 

I did some writing, leaving notes to go back and beef up the descriptions.

 

I exported the Link model and imported it into Godot. I haven't tried to move it around in Godot, yet.

 

I did some reading into how to use mindfulness in day-to-day life. I tried it out when doing my strength-training. Mindfulness is a bit like meditation, in that it involves focusing on the moment and not letting your mind wander too much. My mind wanders a lot and spends most of that time worrying about stuff. I do have a bit of a mental block around mindfulness. It feels like I'm wasting time focusing on the moment, rather than thinking about things and working stuff out, while doing mundane tasks. However, I need to acknowledge that I spend most of the mind-wandering time worrying rather than actually working things out.

 

I did my strength-training:

 

14.3kg reps (to failure)

Cn = Circuit n

BC = bicep curls, HC = hammer curls, CP = chest presses

14.3kg each

|    | BC | HC | CP |
|----|----|----|----|
| C1 | 10 |    | 27 |
| C2 |    | 14 | 24 |
| C3 | 11 |    | 20 |

That's a slight improvement over the last time I posted numbers here.

 

Rosetta@Home has been putting out COVID-19 specific work-units. Those volunteering their computing power have blazed through them. I hope to see the next batch soon.

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Current Challenge: More treasure-hunting in Kakariko graveyard

Epic Quest: Kokiri Forest | Great Deku Tree | Great Deku Tree, part 2 - boss fight | Meeting Princess Zelda | In the royal tomb | Still in the royal tomb | Treasure-hunting in Kakariko graveyard

___

 

"A sword wields no strength unless the hand that holds it has courage." --- Hero's Shade, The Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess.

 

___

 

I help research into the Coronavirus with Rosetta@home and World Community Grid. You can too.

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Update

 

Yesterday was fairly good.

 

Writing

 

I did some writing. I think I spend too much time naming people and things (I spent a good chunk of time naming two children). I always want them to have some deeper meaning so spend my time researching the etymology of words until I find an ancient word that means what I want and base the name on that. I'm likely the only one who'll ever notice so I'm probably being too clever for my own good. Then again, one of the reasons I do things that way is that I'm not good at plucking names out of the air. I need a balance.

 

Game character

 

I was able to put Link into a 'scene' in Godot. He doesn't move or anything but he's there when I run the game. The next job is to make gravity act on him. He just floats above the ground at the moment.

 

Mindfulness

 

I tried to use mindfulness to help me focus and reduce distraction. This had limited success. Today's job will be to read up some more on how to use mindfulness in this way, specifically.

 

I thought it might be useful to define the word.

 

The Oxford dictionary has the definition: "A mental state achieved by focusing one's awareness on the present moment, while calmly acknowledging and accepting one's feelings, thoughts, and bodily sensations, used as a therapeutic technique."

 

Wiktionary says:  "Paying attention on purpose, in the present moment, and non-judgementally."

 

When I looked into using mindfulness in every day life, I found the following web page useful: https://www.headspace.com/blog/2014/03/20/5-ways-to-get-mindfulness-into-your-everyday-life/. I especially liked their example for waiting in line:

Quote

Being mindful of the sense of urgency with which you enter the bank; mindful of your reaction when you first see the line; mindful of your posture as you stand there waiting; mindful of your breath as you focus on the physical sensations in the body; mindful of your reaction each time the line creeps forward; mindful of the tendency to keep looking at your watch, checking your phone or looking for some kind of distraction; and mindful of your interaction with another human being when you finally get served.

 

Exercise

 

I did my interval training. It felt good. I'm not sure whether this is just because I'm getting fitter or also because I was using mindfulness--for example, being aware of the way my legs were aching without judging it as good or bad. I was certainly more aware of what my body was doing.

 

____________________________________

 

I think there's been too much stick, and not enough carrot, in my challenges. I like the reward system that @Snarkyfishguts came up with so I'm going to do something similar. I'm making a smart-speaker/voice-assistant using Mycroft-ai and an ARM-based Single Board Computer (but not a Raspberry Pi). I'll need a speaker and microphone (preferably separate). I'm currently using my PC speakers and a microphone from We Sing for testing. Rather than earning dollars, like Snarky, I'll reward myself the next time I level up (score 100 points). As to whether I reward myself with both the microphone and speaker, or just one of them, will depend on their cost.

 

Last night we had the second Clap For Carers here in the UK. People went to their front doors and applauded to say thank you for the amazing work that those in the NHS (and others) are doing during this crisis. I'm ashamed to say that I didn't join in for the first event because I thought I might have been the only one doing it, and I wasn't convinced that NHS workers would particularly care. I wouldn't have been the only one. I've watching Dr Hope's COVID-19 vlog (a junior doctor in A&E (ER) dealing with COVID-19 patients) and I saw just how much the first event meant to them in this difficult time. I joined in this time and it was quite amazing to see the level of enthusiasm and support.

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Current Challenge: More treasure-hunting in Kakariko graveyard

Epic Quest: Kokiri Forest | Great Deku Tree | Great Deku Tree, part 2 - boss fight | Meeting Princess Zelda | In the royal tomb | Still in the royal tomb | Treasure-hunting in Kakariko graveyard

___

 

"A sword wields no strength unless the hand that holds it has courage." --- Hero's Shade, The Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess.

 

___

 

I help research into the Coronavirus with Rosetta@home and World Community Grid. You can too.

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On 3/31/2020 at 4:38 PM, The Hero of Time said:

Your cases growth rate is fairly high at the moment, but that may be due to a ramp-up in widespread testing (I haven't checked that detail).

It is still rising but have fallen under the 50 cases per day rate now. Which is half what it was the previous week per day.

Brandt says there are still the same testing, but at first the responders didn't give through all the details and information that they were being asked for, and not everyone was working, who should have been working. Things were still very unorganised. Now things are more sorted out.

4 hours ago, The Hero of Time said:

Then again, one of the reasons I do things that way is that I'm not good at plucking names out of the air. I need a balance.

If it works for you, it works.

4 hours ago, The Hero of Time said:

I did my interval training. It felt good. I'm not sure whether this is just because I'm getting fitter or also because I was using mindfulness--for example, being aware of the way my legs were aching without judging it as good or bad. I was certainly more aware of what my body was doing.

Maybe both. Also being positive about exercise. I'm in a more positive frame of mind, so don't feel so bad about how I'm doing at the moment (especially burpees, which a couple months ago were relatively easy and now, not so much). It's nice when your muscles are stronger and you can actually concentrate, or focus on what you are actually doing. It's a good ache after a good workout.

4 hours ago, The Hero of Time said:

I joined in this time and it was quite amazing to see the level of enthusiasm and support.

That is such a nice thing to do. Well done. If there is one thing positive that stands out through the Corona pandemic, it is that there is a return to old fashioned value of people, and jobs (especially those previously seen as low-level), and not just money and status.

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Mrs. Van's Latest Challenge

 

 

Zechariah 4:6

"Not by might, nor by power, but by My spirit, saith the Lord."

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Coronavirus update

 

A week on. Prince Charles has recovered from COVID-19, Boris Johnson is in hospital with it, and Donald Trump has woken up to the fact that you don't just "treat it like the flu". We spent a sunny Sunday pruning trees. Next door had better sense and had a family BBQ (just their household, no invited guests). Unfortunately, there are rumours that some people crowded into parks to have picnics and sunbathe, likely leading to further spread of the disease and more deaths.

 

Daily growth rates

 

These are the daily growth rates calculated for the seven days of Sunday to Sunday. As mentioned previously, these are more relevant than the overall numbers for working out where we are in the pandemic.

| Region       | Cases growth rate | Deaths growth rate |
|--------------+-------------------+--------------------|
| World        |             1.085 |              1.107 |
| Italy        |             1.040 |              1.057 |
| US           |             1.132 |              1.213 |
| UK           |             1.136 |              1.219 |
| Netherlands  |             1.073 |              1.125 |
| South Africa |             1.037 |              1.276 |

Week-on-week comparison

covid19-cases_growth_rate.thumb.png.ef0c1396a204209a0160383cfa03c9fe.png

 

As you can see, growth rates are coming down across the board. These data are only for two weeks, so one can't read too much into them. However, the fact that the same trend can be seen for all regions gives some reason for hope. The infection rate does seem to be slowing. I am concerned that the reduction in the UK growth rate seems relatively minor compared to others, and it's currently the highest of all those listed.. Not only that, if Matt Hancock's ambition for increased testing is met, the growth rate will become artificially inflated. Part of the significant reduction in the US growth rate can be attributed to the fact that we're on the tail end of a drastic change in testing policy.

covid19-deaths_growth_rate.thumb.png.dd54085f315108d631fb10e0b762d71e.png

 

Thankfully, Italy has had a significant decrease in the deaths growth rate. Again, I'm concerned that the reduction in the UK deaths growth rate is relatively minor. Not much can be read into the South Africa figure because we only have a number for one week. The Netherlands have good reductions in both growth rates.

 

Projections

| Region       |  Cases as of yesterday | after 1 week | after 4 weeks |
|--------------+------------------------+--------------+---------------|
| World        |              1,275,959 |    2,253,508 |    12,414,405 |
| Italy        |                128,948 |      170,209 |       391,463 |
| US           |                337,135 |      800,789 |    10,731,521 |
| UK           |                 48,680 |      118,903 |     1,732,703 |
| Netherlands  |                 17,853 |       29,161 |       127,079 |
| South Africa |                  1,655 |        2,140 |         4,625 |

| Region       | Deaths as of yesterday | after 1 week | after 4 weeks |
|--------------+------------------------+--------------+---------------|
| World        |                 69,461 |      141,940 |     1,211,152 |
| Italy        |                 15,887 |       23,416 |        74,971 |
| US           |                  9,617 |       37,233 |     2,160,688 |
| UK           |                  4,948 |       19,776 |     1,262,599 |
| Netherlands  |                  1,766 |        4,040 |        48,360 |
| South Africa |                     11 |           60 |        10,066 |

 

Yesterday's numbers are lower than those projected last week, some more than others. This indicates a flattening of the curve, but we can't read too much into two weeks' numbers. Again, I'm concerned that the number of UK deaths isn't much lower than the projection from last week. It should be noted that there's the very real possibility that the number of US COVID-19 deaths will pass those of Italy in the next week, and the UK may not be far behind.

 

The four-week projections are counted from today, and are not directly comparable with those made last week, but still give an indication of direction.

 

Conclusions

 

The number of world-wide cases passed one million, a grim milestone. However, growth rates are being suppressed, and we have not lived up to the projections from last week. We have not reached saturation and the reason we've seen this reduction in growth rates is the fact that people are adhering to social distancing. Let's keep it up.

Current Challenge: More treasure-hunting in Kakariko graveyard

Epic Quest: Kokiri Forest | Great Deku Tree | Great Deku Tree, part 2 - boss fight | Meeting Princess Zelda | In the royal tomb | Still in the royal tomb | Treasure-hunting in Kakariko graveyard

___

 

"A sword wields no strength unless the hand that holds it has courage." --- Hero's Shade, The Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess.

 

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On 4/3/2020 at 2:45 PM, Snarkyfishguts said:

I like your rewards!! Also following along!

 

Hey Snarky. Nice to have you here.

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Current Challenge: More treasure-hunting in Kakariko graveyard

Epic Quest: Kokiri Forest | Great Deku Tree | Great Deku Tree, part 2 - boss fight | Meeting Princess Zelda | In the royal tomb | Still in the royal tomb | Treasure-hunting in Kakariko graveyard

___

 

"A sword wields no strength unless the hand that holds it has courage." --- Hero's Shade, The Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess.

 

___

 

I help research into the Coronavirus with Rosetta@home and World Community Grid. You can too.

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On 4/3/2020 at 5:44 PM, ElizeElvinFoxRyder said:

I'm in a more positive frame of mind, so don't feel so bad about how I'm doing at the moment (especially burpees, which a couple months ago were relatively easy and now, not so much)

 

I've never done a burpee. I reckon I could do two and then I'd have to lie on the floor for a while.

 

On 4/3/2020 at 5:44 PM, ElizeElvinFoxRyder said:

If there is one thing positive that stands out through the Corona pandemic, it is that there is a return to old fashioned value of people, and jobs (especially those previously seen as low-level), and not just money and status.

 

Let's hope it continues after all this is over, whenever that may be.

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Current Challenge: More treasure-hunting in Kakariko graveyard

Epic Quest: Kokiri Forest | Great Deku Tree | Great Deku Tree, part 2 - boss fight | Meeting Princess Zelda | In the royal tomb | Still in the royal tomb | Treasure-hunting in Kakariko graveyard

___

 

"A sword wields no strength unless the hand that holds it has courage." --- Hero's Shade, The Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess.

 

___

 

I help research into the Coronavirus with Rosetta@home and World Community Grid. You can too.

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Friday and Monday update

 

Writing

 

I did some writing on both days. Yesterday (Monday) I used mindfulness for focus and it helped a lot.

 

Game character

 

Gravity still has no power over Link. I thought the issue was that he hadn't been imported as a KinematicBody (and therefore lacked methods for movement) but I fixed that, after watching some YouTube videos over the weekend, and it still isn't working. Prior to this challenge, I hadn't used Godot in a while (I've been concentrating on Blender), so I'm a little out of practise. I think I'm going to have to rewatch some tutorial videos.

 

Mindfulness

 

I did some research into using mindfulness for the purpose of focus on everyday tasks (such as writing). Effectively, it's a bit like meditation. When you notice your mind has wandered from the task, or you're tempted to check your emails, then you, non-judgementally, bring your mind back to the task. The important thing is to bring your mind back without self-reprimand.

 

Exercise

 

I did strength-training on both Friday and Monday.

 

14.3kg reps (to failure)

Cn = Circuit n

BC = bicep curls, HC = hammer curls, CP = chest presses

## 20200403 ##

14.3kg each

|    | BC | HC | CP |
|----|----|----|----|
| C1 | 12 |    | 30 |
| C2 |    | 14 | 25 |
| C3 | 12 |    | 23 |


## 20200406 ##

14.3kg each

|    | BC | HC | CP |
|----|----|----|----|
| C1 | 14 |    | 32 |
| C2 |    | 14 | 29 |
| C3 | 10 |    | 26 |

 

I managed 12 or more bicep curls on both days. If I manage more than 12 bicep curls on Wednesday, then I'll increase the weight by 1kg. It should be noted that I was consistent in doing my exercises during Zero Week but didn't record it here.

 

Notes on last week

 

I missed two evenings of exercise, although I may decide to count the walk on Tuesday evening as exercise.

 

Although I was consistent with the writing, I didn't do anywhere near as much as I wanted to. I'm still on the first story. This needs to improve.

 

I managed to get the Link character into Godot but I'm frustrated that I must be missing something simple in trying to move him.

 

I've been learning about and practising mindfulness. It seems to be helping and I feel better in general. I spend less time worrying about things and I don't feel as down on myself quite as often.

 

________________________________________________

 

I started watching Star Trek: Picard last night. I enjoyed it so much that I sacrificed some of my gaming time in order to watch the second episode.

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Current Challenge: More treasure-hunting in Kakariko graveyard

Epic Quest: Kokiri Forest | Great Deku Tree | Great Deku Tree, part 2 - boss fight | Meeting Princess Zelda | In the royal tomb | Still in the royal tomb | Treasure-hunting in Kakariko graveyard

___

 

"A sword wields no strength unless the hand that holds it has courage." --- Hero's Shade, The Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess.

 

___

 

I help research into the Coronavirus with Rosetta@home and World Community Grid. You can too.

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On 4/7/2020 at 1:15 PM, Snarkyfishguts said:

Picard is a fun show fer sure. I really enjoyed seeing all the different characters

 

I enjoy all the nods to TNG, and that they expect you to have a certain level of knowledge about the show. My wife hasn't quite got fed up with me explaining all the references. 😉

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Current Challenge: More treasure-hunting in Kakariko graveyard

Epic Quest: Kokiri Forest | Great Deku Tree | Great Deku Tree, part 2 - boss fight | Meeting Princess Zelda | In the royal tomb | Still in the royal tomb | Treasure-hunting in Kakariko graveyard

___

 

"A sword wields no strength unless the hand that holds it has courage." --- Hero's Shade, The Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess.

 

___

 

I help research into the Coronavirus with Rosetta@home and World Community Grid. You can too.

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Update

 

Writing

 

I wrote some more the (refugee) story. It went quite well and I liked what I wrote. However, I've already decided to rework one aspect (I want their origins to be more humble, which gives them greater motive).

 

Game character

 

The previous issue seemed to be caused by the fact that some code hadn't been linked to a scene. I fixed that and Link is no longer weightless; he also moves around. The next task is to make Link turn in the direction he's moving.

 

Mindfulness

 

I didn't learn anything new on this, but I applied it throughout the day. It's helping to deal with distraction and maintain focus. It's also helping to ruminate less, leading to less dwelling upon negative memories.

 

Exercise

 

I did my Interval Training. It felt good again. For the first few sprints, I went over the thirty seconds without realizing it. The last couple were still tough, but I'm starting to think that I may one day be able to do more.

 

_____________________________________________

 

I dreamt about pizza last night. I haven't eaten one in about six months, so craving could be understandable. But the topping was broccoli! I mean, that's just... that's just wrong.

 

 

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Current Challenge: More treasure-hunting in Kakariko graveyard

Epic Quest: Kokiri Forest | Great Deku Tree | Great Deku Tree, part 2 - boss fight | Meeting Princess Zelda | In the royal tomb | Still in the royal tomb | Treasure-hunting in Kakariko graveyard

___

 

"A sword wields no strength unless the hand that holds it has courage." --- Hero's Shade, The Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess.

 

___

 

I help research into the Coronavirus with Rosetta@home and World Community Grid. You can too.

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29 minutes ago, Salinger said:

HEY late but following :) where in the UK are you?

 

Welcome Salinger. I'm in the North West of England. How 'bout you?

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Current Challenge: More treasure-hunting in Kakariko graveyard

Epic Quest: Kokiri Forest | Great Deku Tree | Great Deku Tree, part 2 - boss fight | Meeting Princess Zelda | In the royal tomb | Still in the royal tomb | Treasure-hunting in Kakariko graveyard

___

 

"A sword wields no strength unless the hand that holds it has courage." --- Hero's Shade, The Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess.

 

___

 

I help research into the Coronavirus with Rosetta@home and World Community Grid. You can too.

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