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Mistr keeps climbing


Mistr

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Mistr keeps climbing

 

I really want to get on top of things. The only way to get that to happen is to keep climbing. And take time to enjoy the scenery along the way.

 

13468-hikers-climbing-up-a-rocky-path-at

 

 

I worked late again on Friday to take care of several email requests that had come in during the day. Once I could focus and concentrate on one thing at a time, it didn't take me long to get them done. I felt vastly better knowing that I could enjoy my weekend without those hanging over me.

 

Today I finally submitted the last of the health care reimbursements for 2019, plus a few for 2020. Again, I felt better for finishing a task that I'd been putting off. It's not like I even mind doing the paperwork. Just getting it sorted was the hard part and I did that last weekend.

 

I want to deal with more of the things that have been on my list for a long time so that I can do more fun things with a clear conscience. Unlike many people, I'm still working full time during the pandemic. I have a little extra time from not commuting. Last week that got eaten by work. This week looks better on paper. <crosses fingers>

 

Goals:

  • Take care of bills
  • Sort and file papers
  • Mend black jeans
  • Mend gis
  • Get rid of gis that are too far gone to mend
  • Put together tax information
  • Finish writing will and get it notarized
  • Update beneficiary information
  • Work - catch up on backlog again
  • Work - test new database
  • Work - post new webpage
  • Garden - so much cleaning and raking
  • Garden - dig compost into garden beds
  • Hem curtains for family room

 

I'm sure I will think of more things. Dumbledore promised to start sorting things in the mud room. I asked him to clean out space in a file cabinet for me. That will let me put a bunch of stuff in long term storage. That task will go on my list once he has finished his part.

 

In the background I'm still working on sitting zen and exercising everyday. Realistically almost every day. I really miss aikido practice. When it gets a little warmer I can do sword practice outside. I don't have enough ceiling clearance to do it in the house. Elf is doing more cooking and Dumbledore is doing more cleaning. We're coping really well with all being home at the same time.

 

Fun things are happening too. I've been spinning and working on learning French. I want to do more piano practice too. I have tons of fun things to make from my stash. I've been avoiding social media because I'm so envious of all the people who are stuck at home doing fun stuff while I'm working. :P

 

 

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Level 60  Viking paladin

My current challenge    Battle log 

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25 minutes ago, Mistr said:

When it gets a little warmer I can do sword practice outside. I don't have enough ceiling clearance to do it in the house.

 

I tried practicing with my bokken inside the house and I'm impressed how much ceiling clearance it needs. I definitely need to move this outside.

 

Also, following! :)  

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Reading Challenge Thread 2022

“I've always believed that failure is non-existent. What is failure? You go to the end of the season, then you lose the Super Bowl. Is that failing? To most people, maybe. But when you're picking apart why you failed, and now you're learning from that, then is that really failing? I don't think so." - Kobe Bryant, 1978-2020. Rest in peace, great warrior.

Personal Challenges, a.k.a.The Saga of Scaly Freak: Tutorial; Ch 1; Ch 2; Ch 3; Ch 4; Ch 5; Ch 6; Intermission; Intermission II; Ch 7; Ch 8; Ch 9; Ch 10; Ch 11; Ch 12 ; Ch 13; Ch 14Ch 15; Ch 16; Ch 17; Intermission IIICh 18; Ch 19; Ch 20; Ch 21; Ch 22; Ch 23; Ch 24; Ch 25; Intermission IV; Ch 26; Ch 27; Ch 28; Ch 29; Ch 30; Ch 31; Ch 32; Ch 33; Ch 34

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23 hours ago, Mistr said:

Finish writing will and get it notarized

 

Oh... oh yeah. I should probably do one of those. No idea how though. The first step would be googling it, I guess... 

 

23 hours ago, Mistr said:

In the background I'm still working on sitting zen and exercising everyday. Realistically almost every day. I really miss aikido practice. When it gets a little warmer I can do sword practice outside. I don't have enough ceiling clearance to do it in the house. Elf is doing more cooking and Dumbledore is doing more cleaning. We're coping really well with all being home at the same time.

 

Fun things are happening too. I've been spinning and working on learning French. I want to do more piano practice too. I have tons of fun things to make from my stash. I've been avoiding social media because I'm so envious of all the people who are stuck at home doing fun stuff while I'm working. :P

 

Nice nice nice. Sword fighting and spinning is a nice combo. It gives you skills to create and to destroy. Very balanced.

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Let cheese and oxen and mead crowd out our secret desires for power and domination - Harriet the Viking

Just be bold, fluid and unapologetic, not small, hairy and indecisive - Harriet the Artist

You can absorb me! - Harriet the Contextless Guru

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1 hour ago, Harriet said:

Nice nice nice. Sword fighting and spinning is a nice combo. It gives you skills to create and to destroy. Very balanced.

 

I'm envisioning a giant spider monster with humans arms and wielding a sword now.

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Reading Challenge Thread 2022

“I've always believed that failure is non-existent. What is failure? You go to the end of the season, then you lose the Super Bowl. Is that failing? To most people, maybe. But when you're picking apart why you failed, and now you're learning from that, then is that really failing? I don't think so." - Kobe Bryant, 1978-2020. Rest in peace, great warrior.

Personal Challenges, a.k.a.The Saga of Scaly Freak: Tutorial; Ch 1; Ch 2; Ch 3; Ch 4; Ch 5; Ch 6; Intermission; Intermission II; Ch 7; Ch 8; Ch 9; Ch 10; Ch 11; Ch 12 ; Ch 13; Ch 14Ch 15; Ch 16; Ch 17; Intermission IIICh 18; Ch 19; Ch 20; Ch 21; Ch 22; Ch 23; Ch 24; Ch 25; Intermission IV; Ch 26; Ch 27; Ch 28; Ch 29; Ch 30; Ch 31; Ch 32; Ch 33; Ch 34

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18 hours ago, Scalyfreak said:

 

I'm envisioning a giant spider monster with humans arms and wielding a sword now.

I love the mental image this conjured...

 

Following of course! 

RES...and I want to live days worth dying for...

Current: RES: CUTE in 2022

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Magickal, Eclectic, Goddess, Level 65

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|My Character Page | Tracking Spreadsheet |

Growth happens when you care more about the well being of your future self than the comfort of your present self!

"Pass on what you have learned. Strength, mastery. But weakness, folly, failure also. Yes, failure most of all. The greatest teacher, failure is." -Yoda

 

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19 hours ago, Xena said:

I imagine that would be super hard to go without. I'm guessing not, because you've never mentioned it*, but does anyone else in your house practice any kind of martial arts?

 

Nope. I can sometimes get them to let me show them things that don't involve falling down. Dumbledore was really sweet and volunteered to serve as a dummy for me so I could practice drills. We haven't done that yet. Some time back he made me promise to ask his permission before taking his balance. Now I mostly put him back on his center if he accidentally gives his balance to me. 

 

19 hours ago, Scalyfreak said:

I'm envisioning a giant spider monster with humans arms and wielding a sword now.

 

I like that picture. 

 

A drop spindle is a good weapon. You get it spinning and whip it around and it can cause impact damage or wrap up an attacker.

 

Tuesday started off well then went off the rails.

I got up on time and did core yoga and zen before work. I started work with the intention to dig into my backlog, only to find a pile of new things waiting for me. I barely finished those by the end of the day. I had to scramble to do a thing my boss asked for last week that I hadn't finished. I hate that.

 

I took longer reading here after work than I intended. That left me time to eat supper and go grocery shopping. I thought we had enough groceries to last us a month, but we used up a lot of favorite things. At least the grocery store was quiet, unlike at the beginning of the crisis. The only thing I had trouble finding was unsweetened cranberry juice. I wonder if someone has posted a cranberry juice cure for viruses that I haven't heard of yet. I got home and Elf helped me clean and put away the groceries. They could tell I was out of sorts and asked what was wrong.

 

My original plan for Tuesday evening was to make soup and do fun things. I had a batch of chicken bones cooking for stock in the crockpot and cooked black beans. By the time I got home and put away groceries it was 9pm. I didn't want to stay up late doing another chore with no down time. Elf was a saint and volunteered to do the cooking. I wrote down a recipe and explained how I make soup. Then I washed and went to bed. I woke up a little when Dumbledore came to bed and something smelled delicious. Saved by my awesome kid.

 

I must have really needed the sleep because I wasn't willing to get up when my alarm went off this morning. I got an extra half hour of sleep and had breakfast before work. That means I need to do both exercise and zen this evening. Thankfully it wasn't as busy and I am getting done on time for a change.

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Level 60  Viking paladin

My current challenge    Battle log 

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2 minutes ago, Mistr said:

Some time back he made me promise to ask his permission before taking his balance. Now I mostly put him back on his center if he accidentally gives his balance to me. 

 

It is good to keep things safe, sane, consensual, and risk-aware in relationships. ;)

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I felt like I could run forever, like I could smell the wind and feel the grass under my feet, and just run forever.

Current Challenge: #24 - Mrs. Cosmopolite Challenge

Past: #1, #2, #3, #4, #5, #6,  #7#8, #9#10, #11a & #11b, #12, #13, #14, #15, #16, #17, #18, #19, #20, #21, #22, #23

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12 minutes ago, Mistr said:

I didn't want to stay up late doing another chore with no down time. Elf was a saint and volunteered to do the cooking. I wrote down a recipe and explained how I make soup. Then I washed and went to bed. I woke up a little when Dumbledore came to bed and something smelled delicious. Saved by my awesome kid.

 

The internet outside of this community is filled with memes, bad jokes, and snarky comments about the horrors of being confined to our homes and never being able to get away from our spouses and families. Some of them are genuinely funny, several of them are stupid, and after a while, they start to become sad. In fact, if you were to believe my Facebook feed (and for the record, you should not ), not a single person out there is partnered up with someone they like, and every one of them thoroughly regrets having children.

 

And then there are little stories like this one, that make me smile and restores a small amount of my lost faith in humanity. :) 

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Reading Challenge Thread 2022

“I've always believed that failure is non-existent. What is failure? You go to the end of the season, then you lose the Super Bowl. Is that failing? To most people, maybe. But when you're picking apart why you failed, and now you're learning from that, then is that really failing? I don't think so." - Kobe Bryant, 1978-2020. Rest in peace, great warrior.

Personal Challenges, a.k.a.The Saga of Scaly Freak: Tutorial; Ch 1; Ch 2; Ch 3; Ch 4; Ch 5; Ch 6; Intermission; Intermission II; Ch 7; Ch 8; Ch 9; Ch 10; Ch 11; Ch 12 ; Ch 13; Ch 14Ch 15; Ch 16; Ch 17; Intermission IIICh 18; Ch 19; Ch 20; Ch 21; Ch 22; Ch 23; Ch 24; Ch 25; Intermission IV; Ch 26; Ch 27; Ch 28; Ch 29; Ch 30; Ch 31; Ch 32; Ch 33; Ch 34

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18 hours ago, Mistr said:

Elf was a saint and volunteered to do the cooking. I wrote down a recipe and explained how I make soup. Then I washed and went to bed. I woke up a little when Dumbledore came to bed and something smelled delicious. Saved by my awesome kid.

 

Nice :) 

Let cheese and oxen and mead crowd out our secret desires for power and domination - Harriet the Viking

Just be bold, fluid and unapologetic, not small, hairy and indecisive - Harriet the Artist

You can absorb me! - Harriet the Contextless Guru

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Week 1 midweek report

 

I feel like I'm gradually getting back on track. Today and yesterday I did zen before work. Tuesday I sat zen last thing in the evening. I don't know if it's actually helping. My concentration is lousy, but it is nice to tell my brain not to worry about anything at all for half an hour.

 

Today I did my kettlebell workout at lunch. I figured out that I was doing halos wrong. I like that three circuits only take 30 minutes. My stability on lunges is getting much better. Tomorrow morning I should have time for both a core yoga workout and zen before work.

 

Adapting to the situation

Work has calmed down, which reduces my stress tremendously. I might even be able to pick up my projects tomorrow.

I found out that my co-op grocery has closed their bulk and deli sections. I had a brief panic when I looked at my stash of 100% Callebaut chocolate. I lean on chocolate like other people lean on coffee. I have enough for a couple weeks, maybe. Then I remembered that the co-op gives a 10% discount on case orders. Getting chocolate from them should be as fast or faster than ordering from an online supplier. I'll give them a call and see what they can do.

 

For now, I'm going to take advantage of the lovely spring weather to go work in the garden. 🌻

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Level 60  Viking paladin

My current challenge    Battle log 

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18 hours ago, Mistr said:

Week 1 midweek report

 

I feel like I'm gradually getting back on track. Today and yesterday I did zen before work. Tuesday I sat zen last thing in the evening. I don't know if it's actually helping. My concentration is lousy, but it is nice to tell my brain not to worry about anything at all for half an hour.

 

Today I did my kettlebell workout at lunch. I figured out that I was doing halos wrong. I like that three circuits only take 30 minutes. My stability on lunges is getting much better. Tomorrow morning I should have time for both a core yoga workout and zen before work.

 

Adapting to the situation

Work has calmed down, which reduces my stress tremendously. I might even be able to pick up my projects tomorrow.

I found out that my co-op grocery has closed their bulk and deli sections. I had a brief panic when I looked at my stash of 100% Callebaut chocolate. I lean on chocolate like other people lean on coffee. I have enough for a couple weeks, maybe. Then I remembered that the co-op gives a 10% discount on case orders. Getting chocolate from them should be as fast or faster than ordering from an online supplier. I'll give them a call and see what they can do.

 

For now, I'm going to take advantage of the lovely spring weather to go work in the garden. 🌻

 

This all sounds good. Zen, kettlebells, chocolate :) How were you doing halos wrong? (I've just started doing the NF KB workout, too)

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Let cheese and oxen and mead crowd out our secret desires for power and domination - Harriet the Viking

Just be bold, fluid and unapologetic, not small, hairy and indecisive - Harriet the Artist

You can absorb me! - Harriet the Contextless Guru

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Y'know, much as I hate my job sometimes, right now the fact that I'm not allowed to work over 40 hours is pretty sweet. Like it forces a work-life balance. Extra hours would be nice for pay, but right now I'm just leaning into benefits and it's honestly not too bad.

 

I'm glad to hear that things are calming down. That's kind of been the theme of things everywhere I feel like - lots of dust ups as we adjusted to the new normal. Calm will help.

 

18 hours ago, Mistr said:

I had a brief panic when I looked at my stash of 100% Callebaut chocolate. I lean on chocolate like other people lean on coffee. I have enough for a couple weeks, maybe. Then I remembered that the co-op gives a 10% discount on case orders. Getting chocolate from them should be as fast or faster than ordering from an online supplier. I'll give them a call and see what they can do.

 

Ooh, I'm praying for you on this one. I'm getting by on 85-88% dark myself and if it got panic-bought I might light someone on fire. Hope this works out!

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32 minutes ago, Harriet said:

This all sounds good. Zen, kettlebells, chocolate :) How were you doing halos wrong? (I've just started doing the NF KB workout, too)

 

I had my arms mostly extended so the halos were small circles over my head. That makes it more a core exercise than an arm exercise. When I watched the video again I saw that he had the kettlebell about eye level through the whole circle. Doing that made my shoulders make all sorts of crunchy noises. Good for full range of motion. :) 

 

Tomorrow I'm going to learn to do get-ups. I tried yesterday and realized that they are much harder than they look. Not the holding the weight part, I was only using a 5# bell. Just getting the body position is a challenge.

 

Today I did my core yoga. I'm going to sit zen at lunch time so I can have the evening open. I just took care of calls about medical bills that were on my to-do list. So far go good. B) 

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Level 60  Viking paladin

My current challenge    Battle log 

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19 hours ago, Mistr said:

I found out that my co-op grocery has closed their bulk and deli sections. I had a brief panic when I looked at my stash of 100% Callebaut chocolate. I lean on chocolate like other people lean on coffee. I have enough for a couple weeks, maybe. Then I remembered that the co-op gives a 10% discount on case orders. Getting chocolate from them should be as fast or faster than ordering from an online supplier. I'll give them a call and see what they can do.

 

Oh no!

 

A lot of stores here that cannot do delivery are offering contact-less curb side pickup. Hopefully they can help you out.

 

Reading Challenge Thread 2022

“I've always believed that failure is non-existent. What is failure? You go to the end of the season, then you lose the Super Bowl. Is that failing? To most people, maybe. But when you're picking apart why you failed, and now you're learning from that, then is that really failing? I don't think so." - Kobe Bryant, 1978-2020. Rest in peace, great warrior.

Personal Challenges, a.k.a.The Saga of Scaly Freak: Tutorial; Ch 1; Ch 2; Ch 3; Ch 4; Ch 5; Ch 6; Intermission; Intermission II; Ch 7; Ch 8; Ch 9; Ch 10; Ch 11; Ch 12 ; Ch 13; Ch 14Ch 15; Ch 16; Ch 17; Intermission IIICh 18; Ch 19; Ch 20; Ch 21; Ch 22; Ch 23; Ch 24; Ch 25; Intermission IV; Ch 26; Ch 27; Ch 28; Ch 29; Ch 30; Ch 31; Ch 32; Ch 33; Ch 34

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29 minutes ago, Mistr said:

 

I had my arms mostly extended so the halos were small circles over my head. That makes it more a core exercise than an arm exercise. When I watched the video again I saw that he had the kettlebell about eye level through the whole circle. Doing that made my shoulders make all sorts of crunchy noises. Good for full range of motion. :) 

 


Right. And I noticed the bell was bottom up when it was in front of him, and right way up at the back. I tried halos for the first time (25lb bell) and I have now, with the help of DOMS, located what must be my triceps. 

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Let cheese and oxen and mead crowd out our secret desires for power and domination - Harriet the Viking

Just be bold, fluid and unapologetic, not small, hairy and indecisive - Harriet the Artist

You can absorb me! - Harriet the Contextless Guru

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Week 2 Wednesday

 

Yesterday went a lot better than expected. I slept poorly and turned off my alarm so I could get more sleep in the morning. Thanks to @Harriet's good example, I actually did my kettlebell workout at lunch. I sat zen just before going to bed - nearly on time. I was even productive at work. I started chipping away at my backlog. I did more of that today. Progress.

 

I have been making an effort to stay in touch with my family. Last night I called my uncle. We never chat, but my aunt is in the hospital (stroke or dementia, not COVID-related). Things looked grim last weekend, but she is doing a bit better. She is talking and recognized him, at least some of the time. We had a good talk. I was relieved to hear my uncle sounding together and on top of things. He has a very realistic attitude toward the situation. He has subscribed to a grocery delivery service from a local store. One of his kids is in town and can help with errands if needed.

 

Dumbledore asked me about cloth face masks. After what I posted in the Monastery Infirmary I can't very well say no. It seems silly to buy them when I have the skills and materials to make them myself. I have fun projects I want to do and this is NOT one of them. So I dug through my scrap fabric and notions boxes and got out fabric and ribbon. I put the fabric through the wash because it has been in the garage for seven years and in the basement for years before that. Dumbledore helped by printing out the pattern for me. I can make a bunch of them this weekend.

 

Tonight I'm going to make an expedition to the grocery store. It's interesting to see what we go through in a week and can't live without. Diet soda for Dumbledore, lemon juice for Elf. I'm drinking lots of herbal tea, but we had a good supply of that to start with. We are making cookies so we need more butter and chocolate chips. In the spirit of using up old food, I used half butter and half Crisco baking sticks in the last batch. They came out fine, so we'll keep doing that until the Crisco is gone. In normal life I only use Crisco when baking for dairy-sensitive friends. Once I get home and put the groceries away I will be officially done with being responsible. I did core yoga and zen before work this morning. B) 

 

 

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Level 60  Viking paladin

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Outside world report

 

Walk at lunchtime in the rain with Dumbledore - excellent.

Our neighborhood is calm, lots of people have spring flowers coming up in their gardens. Lots of space and fresh air. Umbrellas are fun in light rain.

 

Grocery shopping - strange and stressful

I went to the big grocery store and the smaller store that runs good specials but generally has higher prices. The big store was moderately busy. About half the customers and all the staff were wearing face masks. That is a significant change from a week ago when only some of the staff people were wearing masks. I feel like I should have masks for my family before we venture out again.

 

The big store has always had random issues with keeping everything in stock. Now it seems to be supply issues rather than timing of restocking. There were empty spaces in the produce section where some veggies just aren't available. Luckily, they had everything on my list. They even had pork shoulder roast on sale (requested by Elf). The toilet paper aisle had a big stack of Cottonelle double-roll 6-packs in generic packaging and almost nothing else. Go figure. Miraculously, hand sanitizer was in stock. The options were a 4oz bottle for $4, or a 2 quart bottle for $29. I got the small one. Neither store had Clorox or Lysol wipes. I found both bread flour and whole wheat flour, but the checker sadly informed me that I could only buy one bag of flour per visit. I got the bread flour and then couldn't find whole wheat flour at the smaller grocery store. :(  Neither store carries rye flour. I got another big bag of generic chocolate chips because I know where our priorities lie.

 

I expected shopping to take about an hour for a medium-sized list. I found almost everything I wanted. The line to checkout looked long because of the enforced social distance, but it moved quickly. I'm not sure why it was so stressful. Maybe just worrying about everyone. I almost didn't go to the second store. Elf had asked for more protein, so I went anyway. I got chicken breasts, a head of cauliflower, some half-and-half and a bottle of unsweetened cranberry juice. Their ad said they had turkey breast on sale but all I could find was whole turkeys. Frustrating. The whole expedition took two and a half hours.

 

Elf wiped down the groceries as I brought them into the house. Once I finished unloading the car and washed my hands, I joined them in the kitchen to help finish wiping things down and put them away. Elf said "I've got this, why don't you get something to eat?". "Really?" "Yes". My kid is the best. 🏆

 

I did indeed feel better after eating real food. By that time I had just enough time to do Duolingo and go to bed. Not what I hoped to do.

 

Work report

My company had a meeting today to let everyone know what is going on. I am very pleased with what management is doing. One of the questions for the MD on the team was how long do you expect this to last? He said that our local efforts to flatten the curve seem to be working. They think the peak in cases might be around the end of next week. He guessed that the people working from home might be able to come back to the office in mid-May. There could be another outbreak in the fall, it just depends on how well we limit transmission now. There are at least 23 institutions working on vaccines. The normal timeline on a vaccine is 12-18 months, but that is likely to be shorter in this instance. The overall message was hang in there, things are going to get better.

 

Two days ago it was 72º F outside. Today it is snowing. Welcome to spring in the midwest.

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Level 60  Viking paladin

My current challenge    Battle log 

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4 hours ago, Mistr said:

Today it is snowing.

Oh No No No No...this is why I live where I do! :D 

 

That sounds like very good news about your job and how things are going in life overall...I mean, TP AND Hand Sanitizer is pretty dang close to miraculous! 

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RES...and I want to live days worth dying for...

Current: RES: CUTE in 2022

Spoiler

Magickal, Eclectic, Goddess, Level 65

|1|2|3|4|5|6|7|8|9|10|11|12|13|14|15|16|17|18|19|20|21|22|23|24|25|26|27|28|29|30|31|32|33|34|35|36|37|38|39|40|41|42|43|44|45|46|47|48|49|50|51|52|53|54|55|56|57|58|59|60|61|62|63|64|65|66|67|68|69|

|My Character Page | Tracking Spreadsheet |

Growth happens when you care more about the well being of your future self than the comfort of your present self!

"Pass on what you have learned. Strength, mastery. But weakness, folly, failure also. Yes, failure most of all. The greatest teacher, failure is." -Yoda

 

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On 4/8/2020 at 3:00 PM, Mistr said:

Thanks to @Harriet's good example, I actually did my kettlebell workout at lunch.

 

Kettlebells for the win!

 

14 hours ago, Mistr said:

I expected shopping to take about an hour for a medium-sized list. I found almost everything I wanted. The line to checkout looked long because of the enforced social distance, but it moved quickly. I'm not sure why it was so stressful.Maybe just worrying about everyone.

 

Yeah. Shopping does feel stressful. I'm not sure how dangerous it is. Is it low risk? Is it high risk? The uncertainty doesn't help. 

 

14 hours ago, Mistr said:

 They think the peak in cases might be around the end of next week.

 

I would love to know how long this will last. I got the impression it could be many months before the danger is significantly reduced. 

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Let cheese and oxen and mead crowd out our secret desires for power and domination - Harriet the Viking

Just be bold, fluid and unapologetic, not small, hairy and indecisive - Harriet the Artist

You can absorb me! - Harriet the Contextless Guru

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5 hours ago, Harriet said:

I would love to know how long this will last. I got the impression it could be many months before the danger is significantly reduced. 

 

The big difficulty is that when that time comes, we don't know how much that reduction is going to actually help, if we don't help it out as well. We all know people in general have a mindset of "I reached my goal weight, I can eat what I want now!" and I fear that if we apply that to the flattened curve, we're going to bring the entire pandemic back, but possibly worse...

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Reading Challenge Thread 2022

“I've always believed that failure is non-existent. What is failure? You go to the end of the season, then you lose the Super Bowl. Is that failing? To most people, maybe. But when you're picking apart why you failed, and now you're learning from that, then is that really failing? I don't think so." - Kobe Bryant, 1978-2020. Rest in peace, great warrior.

Personal Challenges, a.k.a.The Saga of Scaly Freak: Tutorial; Ch 1; Ch 2; Ch 3; Ch 4; Ch 5; Ch 6; Intermission; Intermission II; Ch 7; Ch 8; Ch 9; Ch 10; Ch 11; Ch 12 ; Ch 13; Ch 14Ch 15; Ch 16; Ch 17; Intermission IIICh 18; Ch 19; Ch 20; Ch 21; Ch 22; Ch 23; Ch 24; Ch 25; Intermission IV; Ch 26; Ch 27; Ch 28; Ch 29; Ch 30; Ch 31; Ch 32; Ch 33; Ch 34

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9 hours ago, Harriet said:

I would love to know how long this will last. I got the impression it could be many months before the danger is significantly reduced. 

 

3 hours ago, Scalyfreak said:

The big difficulty is that when that time comes, we don't know how much that reduction is going to actually help, if we don't help it out as well. We all know people in general have a mindset of "I reached my goal weight, I can eat what I want now!" and I fear that if we apply that to the flattened curve, we're going to bring the entire pandemic back, but possibly worse...

 

Yes, both of those things are concerns. The MD at the meeting said there is a strong likelihood of a second outbreak in the fall. That is based on the historical evidence from the 1918 flu pandemic. On the other hand, we have better technology now. Maybe we can prevent that from happening.

 

Also note that the predictions he made are local. Different cities and states implemented stay-at-home restrictions at different times. Those that had early implementation will have flatter curves and fewer cases overall. Epidemiologists have modeling software that is designed for these questions. If you know the number of contagious people and the transmission rate, you can predict the size and timing of the peak. Unfortunately, we have very poor data on the number of infected people in the US because our testing has been limited to really sick people.

 

All the predictions people are making are guesses based on incomplete data. For example, they expect that rural areas will be hit later than urban areas because rural people have fewer contacts per week with others. Some areas might get missed entirely because the people there don't travel outside the region. That doesn't make them immune, just lucky. The more people you see, the more likely you are to come near someone who is contagious. Simple statistics.

 

In a perfect world, everyone would stay home for two weeks at the same time. By the end of the second week, everyone who has been exposed will have started to show symptoms. The sick people would continue to stay home and everyone else could go back to normal. In our actual world there are lots of people who can't stay home for two weeks. Lots of them are being careful, but some are still getting exposed and passing the virus to more people before they realize they are getting sick. That means there will be a steady level of infection continuing for months, in spite of our best efforts. Hopefully we will start implementing contact tracing and precautionary quarantine. Some of that is happening now, but not enough.

 

On a happy note, my mom is out of quarantine from traveling abroad. Her senior living building is still in lock-down, but at least she can go for walks. My brother is fully recovered and his wife and son are out of quarantine without getting sick.

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Glad to hear about your brother's family!

 

Everything I've been hearing says that realistically we'll be doing this on and off until there's a vaccine, because it'll keep resurging. Developing plus distribution, I wouldn't be too shocked by two years.

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