Tanktimus the Encourager Posted January 3, 2021 Report Share Posted January 3, 2021 27 minutes ago, sarakingdom said: My feeling about covid risk, both pre and post, is that you're playing a game of improving your odds at every turn, and that takes some information about risk and how to reduce it. Not every throw will turn out in your favor, so you do what you can at whatever stage you are at to load the dice - and at the same time, an unlucky throw does not reduce the opportunities to do something to improve the outcome. So if I have an unlucky infection throw, there's the information I need to monitor and treat side effects, and walk away as unscathed as I can. I think what a lot of people don't realize is that something that decreases risk by say, 10% has way more effect when you scale it up for national populations. When zooming out to the population of the us (Somewhere over 300 mil) reducing cases by 10% results in huge numbers of fewer cases, but it's hard for a lot of people to grasp the math in that way. 6 Current Challenge "By the Most-Righteous-and-Blessed Beard of Sir Tanktimus the Encourager!" - Jarl Rurik Harrgath Link to comment
sarakingdom Posted January 3, 2021 Report Share Posted January 3, 2021 10 minutes ago, Tanktimus the Encourager said: I think what a lot of people don't realize is that something that decreases risk by say, 10% has way more effect when you scale it up for national populations. When zooming out to the population of the us (Somewhere over 300 mil) reducing cases by 10% results in huge numbers of fewer cases, but it's hard for a lot of people to grasp the math in that way. Yeah, absolutely. The difference between personal risk and population risk is hard to grasp. The personal risk of dying might be like 1%, but if so, that's like 3 million people if we all get it, and the country won't cope with that, financially or socially. For every person who dies of covid, there are 18 who have strokes. That's 54 million. If you can reduce the number of cases by 10%, that's huge already. Then reduce the likelihood of hospitalisation, death, stroke, etc. by a further 10%, and that's even more. If masks cut risk by 30% (one person wearing) or 90% (both people wearing), that's not "they don't work" because it's not 100% reduced risk to you personally, that's huge. It's a big frustration I have with people's risk assessment locally. And, if we're honest, some of that is people's willingness to care about non-personal risk. Which is bad personal risk assessment, IMO, because the population risk comes back to bite us personally. The collective cost to the economy of people surviving covid is going to be more expensive than the cost of people dying of it, which isn't going to be cheap, either. And at the most basic level, if you reduce the population risk, there's a better chance that the health care system will have resources to treat you with the best care when you need it, improving your personal risk. 12 I felt like I could run forever, like I could smell the wind and feel the grass under my feet, and just run forever. Current Challenge: #24 - Mrs. Cosmopolite Challenge Past: #1, #2, #3, #4, #5, #6, #7, #8, #9, #10, #11a & #11b, #12, #13, #14, #15, #16, #17, #18, #19, #20, #21, #22, #23 Link to comment
Yasha92 Posted January 3, 2021 Report Share Posted January 3, 2021 This is all sensible and good information... aaaaaaaand it also seems like we have migrated into maths class *scampers back to the slide * *pauses to wash hands vigorously and don mask * *sliiiiiiiiides * wheeeee! 7 Mini | | Jan 16 || Feb 16 || Mar 16 || April 16 || July-Aug 16 || Aug-Sep 16 . || Sep-Oct 16 || Oct-Nov 16 || Dec 16 || Jan 17 || March 17 || April 17 || May 17 || August 17 || Sep 17 || Oct 17 || Grind it out || Jan 18 || Feb 18 || April 18 || May June 18 || Nov 18 || Oct 19 || Early 2020 || Halfway thru 2020 || Yasha High-5s herself || Jan 2023 || Current Challenge: Yasha holds steady (Feb-Mar 2023) Link to comment
sarakingdom Posted January 3, 2021 Report Share Posted January 3, 2021 Just now, Yasha92 said: aaaaaaaand it also seems like we have migrated into maths class 2 2 1 I felt like I could run forever, like I could smell the wind and feel the grass under my feet, and just run forever. Current Challenge: #24 - Mrs. Cosmopolite Challenge Past: #1, #2, #3, #4, #5, #6, #7, #8, #9, #10, #11a & #11b, #12, #13, #14, #15, #16, #17, #18, #19, #20, #21, #22, #23 Link to comment
Chulainn Posted January 3, 2021 Report Share Posted January 3, 2021 Chulainn enters the playground and starts a game of tag. YOUR IT! 2 Current Quest A journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step -Lao Tzu Link to comment
Heidi Posted January 3, 2021 Report Share Posted January 3, 2021 3 minutes ago, Chulainn said: Chulainn enters the playground and starts a game of tag. YOUR IT! I am??? How cool is that? 2 4 ♥ & ☮, Heidi Gypsy Druid Paladin Ranger: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 :: Druid: 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |:: 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |:: 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 |:: 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 |:: 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 |:: 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53| 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 |:: 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | :: 70 | Paladin: 71 | 72 | 73 | 74 | 75 | 76 | :: 77 | 78 | 79 | 80 | 81 | Heidi Chronicles NF Character Sheet | @theheidifeed| MySlashdotKarmaIsExcellent Let's catch up: https://calendly.com/loveandpeace Link to comment
RES Posted January 3, 2021 Report Share Posted January 3, 2021 13 hours ago, sarakingdom said: Yeah, absolutely. The difference between personal risk and population risk is hard to grasp. The personal risk of dying might be like 1%, but if so, that's like 3 million people if we all get it, and the country won't cope with that, financially or socially. For every person who dies of covid, there are 18 who have strokes. That's 54 million. If you can reduce the number of cases by 10%, that's huge already. Then reduce the likelihood of hospitalisation, death, stroke, etc. by a further 10%, and that's even more. If masks cut risk by 30% (one person wearing) or 90% (both people wearing), that's not "they don't work" because it's not 100% reduced risk to you personally, that's huge. It's a big frustration I have with people's risk assessment locally. And, if we're honest, some of that is people's willingness to care about non-personal risk. Which is bad personal risk assessment, IMO, because the population risk comes back to bite us personally. The collective cost to the economy of people surviving covid is going to be more expensive than the cost of people dying of it, which isn't going to be cheap, either. And at the most basic level, if you reduce the population risk, there's a better chance that the health care system will have resources to treat you with the best care when you need it, improving your personal risk. This is a lot of what frustrates me about peoples attitudes regarding this. "I can't wait till this is over" is something I hear a lot, they don't want to hear about how life is probably never going to be like it was...I know for me personally, I'm not afraid of dying from this (even though it's a real risk) but what about the damage it does if you survive? There's no way to even know what the next year or 5, 10, 20 years means for people who survive this. 3 RES...and I want to live days worth dying for Current: RES: Wrestle, It's all about the pin Spoiler Magickal, Eclectic, Goddess, Level 75 |1|2|3|4|5|6|7|8|9|10|11|12|13|14|15|16|17|18|19|20|21|22|23|24|25|26|27|28|29|30|31|32|33|34|35|36|37|38|39|40|41|42|43|44|45|46|47|48|49|50|51|52|53|54|55|56|57|58|59|60|61|62|63|64|65|66|67|68|69|70|71|72|73|74|75|76|77|78|79|80| | My Character Page | Tracking Spreadsheet | My Blog | Growth happens when you care more about the well being of your future self than the comfort of your present self! "Pass on what you have learned. Strength, mastery. But weakness, folly, failure also. Yes, failure most of all. The greatest teacher, failure is." -Yoda Link to comment
sarakingdom Posted January 3, 2021 Report Share Posted January 3, 2021 1 minute ago, RES said: This is a lot of what frustrates me about peoples attitudes regarding this. "I can't wait till this is over" is something I hear a lot, they don't want to hear about how life is probably never going to be like it was...I know for me personally, I'm not afraid of dying from this (even though it's a real risk) but what about the damage it does if you survive? There's no way to even know what the next year or 5, 10, 20 years means for people who survive this. There was a window where we could have had a future where it was all over and back to normal, and we missed it resoundingly hard. South Korea did it, New Zealand did it, Japan did it. But once it takes hold to this extent, once there are these sorts of numbers of infections, there isn't really a normal to go back to. I mean, maybe the masks go away and we have birthday parties again, but a lot will still be defined by covid. 3 I felt like I could run forever, like I could smell the wind and feel the grass under my feet, and just run forever. Current Challenge: #24 - Mrs. Cosmopolite Challenge Past: #1, #2, #3, #4, #5, #6, #7, #8, #9, #10, #11a & #11b, #12, #13, #14, #15, #16, #17, #18, #19, #20, #21, #22, #23 Link to comment
zeroh13 Posted January 3, 2021 Report Share Posted January 3, 2021 3 hours ago, sarakingdom said: There was a window where we could have had a future where it was all over and back to normal, and we missed it resoundingly hard. South Korea did it, New Zealand did it, Japan did it. But once it takes hold to this extent, once there are these sorts of numbers of infections, there isn't really a normal to go back to. I mean, maybe the masks go away and we have birthday parties again, but a lot will still be defined by covid. I’ve gotten to the point where I just can’t see myself not wearing a mask outside. Even once this has all “calmed down”. 2 Current Challenge: Zeroh, stick to the routine! Link to comment
iatetheyeti Posted January 3, 2021 Report Share Posted January 3, 2021 2 minutes ago, zeroh13 said: I’ve gotten to the point where I just can’t see myself not wearing a mask outside. Even once this has all “calmed down”. I'm in the same boat here, gotta say. 3 "The old that is strong does not wither, deep roots are not reached by the frost. From the ashes a fire shall be woken, a light from the shadows shall spring." Yeti on Flickr - Facebook - Instagram Link to comment
RES Posted January 3, 2021 Report Share Posted January 3, 2021 6 hours ago, sarakingdom said: There was a window where we could have had a future where it was all over and back to normal, and we missed it resoundingly hard. South Korea did it, New Zealand did it, Japan did it. But once it takes hold to this extent, once there are these sorts of numbers of infections, there isn't really a normal to go back to. I mean, maybe the masks go away and we have birthday parties again, but a lot will still be defined by covid. I had pretty much the same conversation with my wife the other day... 2 hours ago, zeroh13 said: I’ve gotten to the point where I just can’t see myself not wearing a mask outside. Even once this has all “calmed down”. 2 hours ago, iatetheyeti said: I'm in the same boat here, gotta say. I feel the same way....doesn't feel right to go out without one anymore 1 RES...and I want to live days worth dying for Current: RES: Wrestle, It's all about the pin Spoiler Magickal, Eclectic, Goddess, Level 75 |1|2|3|4|5|6|7|8|9|10|11|12|13|14|15|16|17|18|19|20|21|22|23|24|25|26|27|28|29|30|31|32|33|34|35|36|37|38|39|40|41|42|43|44|45|46|47|48|49|50|51|52|53|54|55|56|57|58|59|60|61|62|63|64|65|66|67|68|69|70|71|72|73|74|75|76|77|78|79|80| | My Character Page | Tracking Spreadsheet | My Blog | Growth happens when you care more about the well being of your future self than the comfort of your present self! "Pass on what you have learned. Strength, mastery. But weakness, folly, failure also. Yes, failure most of all. The greatest teacher, failure is." -Yoda Link to comment
KB Girl Posted January 3, 2021 Report Share Posted January 3, 2021 Okay so the one thing that doesn’t suck about having had Covid is that it’s such a feeling of freedom to live for a little while without worrying much about infecting anyone. 7 KB Quest: becoming a decent kettlebell lifter and an excellent coach 2023 goals tracker; 591/5000km & reading to my kids 48/365 days (updated march-22) my instagram - my gym's instagram Link to comment
Kestrel Grey Posted January 4, 2021 Report Share Posted January 4, 2021 Hands up if you repeatedly go to drink out of a water bottle with your mask on. 8 Current Challenge: The Cliffs of Insanity Previous Challenges: #1, #2, #3, #4, #5, #6, #7, #8, #9, #10, #11, #12, #13, #14, #15, #16, #17, #18, #19, #20, #21, #22, #23, #24, #25, #26, #27, #28, #29, #30, #31, #32, #33, #34, #35 Battle Log: Operation Fly-By-Night “Fairy tales are more than true: not because they tell us that dragons exist, but because they tell us that dragons can be beaten.” ― Neil Gaiman Link to comment
Scaly Freak Posted January 4, 2021 Report Share Posted January 4, 2021 2 hours ago, Kestrel Grey said: Hands up if you repeatedly go to drink out of a water bottle with your mask on. How about a travel mug with coffee? Does that count? 2 The Great Reading Thread of 2023 “I've always believed that failure is non-existent. What is failure? You go to the end of the season, then you lose the Super Bowl. Is that failing? To most people, maybe. But when you're picking apart why you failed, and now you're learning from that, then is that really failing? I don't think so." - Kobe Bryant, 1978-2020. Rest in peace, great warrior. Personal Challenges, a.k.a.The Saga of Scalyfreak: Tutorial; Ch 1; Ch 2; Ch 3; Ch 4; Ch 5; Ch 6; Intermission; Intermission II; Ch 7; Ch 8; Ch 9; Ch 10; Ch 11; Ch 12 ; Ch 13; Ch 14; Ch 15; Ch 16; Ch 17; Intermission III; Ch 18; Ch 19; Ch 20; Ch 21; Ch 22; Ch 23; Ch 24; Ch 25; Intermission IV; Ch 26; Ch 27; Ch 28; Ch 29; Ch 30; Ch 31; Ch 32; Ch 33; Ch 34; Ch 35; Ch 36; Ch 37; Ch 38; Ch 39; Ch 40; Intermission V; Ch 41; Ch 42 Link to comment
Mr_Willes Posted January 4, 2021 Report Share Posted January 4, 2021 As there were quite some people that are doing, were doing, or were thinking about doing a Dry January. I made a place to meet up: 2 ... a little odd in the head ... Link to comment
sarakingdom Posted January 4, 2021 Report Share Posted January 4, 2021 17 minutes ago, Mr_Willes said: As there were quite some people that are doing, were doing, or were thinking about doing a Dry January. I have Dry Most Other Months, more by accident than design, but I'm afraid January will be decidedly wet. I have three liters of brandy and five bottles of wine to get through. I'm like the worst new years resolutioner ever. "All the booze? Extra bacon? I'm doing this right, yes?" 6 5 1 I felt like I could run forever, like I could smell the wind and feel the grass under my feet, and just run forever. Current Challenge: #24 - Mrs. Cosmopolite Challenge Past: #1, #2, #3, #4, #5, #6, #7, #8, #9, #10, #11a & #11b, #12, #13, #14, #15, #16, #17, #18, #19, #20, #21, #22, #23 Link to comment
iatetheyeti Posted January 4, 2021 Report Share Posted January 4, 2021 10 hours ago, Kestrel Grey said: Hands up if you repeatedly go to drink out of a water bottle with your mask on. I also keep smiling at people before remembering they can't see it, so it must just look like I'm pretty much staring at folks... 7 "The old that is strong does not wither, deep roots are not reached by the frost. From the ashes a fire shall be woken, a light from the shadows shall spring." Yeti on Flickr - Facebook - Instagram Link to comment
deftona Posted January 4, 2021 Report Share Posted January 4, 2021 1 hour ago, iatetheyeti said: I also keep smiling at people before remembering they can't see it, so it must just look like I'm pretty much staring at folks... I do this 🤣 And because I'm not much of a talker, I often just make an expression as a response to strangers speaking to me so I probably look rude as hell too lol 4 If it's not siesta or fiesta, I'm not interested. Profile picture credit : NF's resident super artist - NinjaKitten Link to comment
Renate Posted January 4, 2021 Report Share Posted January 4, 2021 1 hour ago, iatetheyeti said: I also keep smiling at people before remembering they can't see it, so it must just look like I'm pretty much staring at folks... I thought this recently too but then also: "If you smile with your eyes, they do, that's the most important part of a genuine-appearing smile anyway " Though Ive got to admit that, after for years not practicing an annoying double thumbs up habit I started in my early teens, I am right back at it 👌👍👍👏👏 etc. 6 Level ☆ human [uncategorizable] STR 2 | DEX 3 | CON 3 | STA 3 | WIS 6 | CHA 6 Link to comment
iatetheyeti Posted January 4, 2021 Report Share Posted January 4, 2021 1 minute ago, Athena said: Though Ive got to admit that, after for years not practicing an annoying double thumbs up habit I started in my early teens, I am right back at it 👌👍👍👏👏 etc. Oh yeah, hand signals are back with a vengeance! And apparently overly mobile eyebrows are becoming a thing too... 6 "The old that is strong does not wither, deep roots are not reached by the frost. From the ashes a fire shall be woken, a light from the shadows shall spring." Yeti on Flickr - Facebook - Instagram Link to comment
deftona Posted January 4, 2021 Report Share Posted January 4, 2021 5 minutes ago, iatetheyeti said: Oh yeah, hand signals are back with a vengeance I'm too scared to because I worry I'd just go for this one every time 6 If it's not siesta or fiesta, I'm not interested. Profile picture credit : NF's resident super artist - NinjaKitten Link to comment
iatetheyeti Posted January 4, 2021 Report Share Posted January 4, 2021 2 minutes ago, deftona said: I'm too scared to because I worry I'd just go for this one every time We do this (and other variations!) a lot at work... The trick is to work it in subtly so customers don't see it! 4 "The old that is strong does not wither, deep roots are not reached by the frost. From the ashes a fire shall be woken, a light from the shadows shall spring." Yeti on Flickr - Facebook - Instagram Link to comment
Scaly Freak Posted January 4, 2021 Report Share Posted January 4, 2021 3 hours ago, iatetheyeti said: I also keep smiling at people before remembering they can't see it, so it must just look like I'm pretty much staring at folks... Actually, the fact no one can see that I'm not smiling at them is one of my favorite things about masks... 3 3 The Great Reading Thread of 2023 “I've always believed that failure is non-existent. What is failure? You go to the end of the season, then you lose the Super Bowl. Is that failing? To most people, maybe. But when you're picking apart why you failed, and now you're learning from that, then is that really failing? I don't think so." - Kobe Bryant, 1978-2020. Rest in peace, great warrior. Personal Challenges, a.k.a.The Saga of Scalyfreak: Tutorial; Ch 1; Ch 2; Ch 3; Ch 4; Ch 5; Ch 6; Intermission; Intermission II; Ch 7; Ch 8; Ch 9; Ch 10; Ch 11; Ch 12 ; Ch 13; Ch 14; Ch 15; Ch 16; Ch 17; Intermission III; Ch 18; Ch 19; Ch 20; Ch 21; Ch 22; Ch 23; Ch 24; Ch 25; Intermission IV; Ch 26; Ch 27; Ch 28; Ch 29; Ch 30; Ch 31; Ch 32; Ch 33; Ch 34; Ch 35; Ch 36; Ch 37; Ch 38; Ch 39; Ch 40; Intermission V; Ch 41; Ch 42 Link to comment
RhiaWolfe Posted January 4, 2021 Report Share Posted January 4, 2021 I also keep smiling at people. It's just instinct at this point. I've gotten pretty good at remembering I have a mask on when taking a drink though. I agree that the world won't be the same after Covid. I know it's going to be a long recovery, even after the vaccine is dispersed. The impact on the economy and the loss of so many people is not going to recover over night. A friend of mine said something to me today that really explains how I feel right now: " I am feeling happy and hopeful. It's a strange, unfamiliar feeling, and I'm not sure if I should trust it. 2021 might just be luring me in for a sucker punch!" I'm feeling hopeful for the first time in what feels like forever. I like this feeling. Not just hopeful about Covid and the world, but also about my personal health and fitness. Just feeling that I'll be in a better place this year than last year. However, I'm worried that it's just an imagined hopefulness that will be kicked out of me by the next bad thing that happens. 4 Heroine of Time Height: 5'8 Weight: 272 lbs Current Challenge: RhiaWolfe Respawns Previous Challenges: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26 "Reach for the stars! If you only make it to the moon, you've still done good!" - My Dad "Hyaaaat! Jeeyat-Hiyaaaah Hiet! Hyaaaaaaa Hiyyyyet! Hiyaaaaat Hiyaaaa!" - Link Link to comment
Yasha92 Posted January 4, 2021 Report Share Posted January 4, 2021 Regular mask wearing forces me to make eye contact instead of trying to lip read everything which is weird (for me) but technically more polite. Also means I have been more on-point with my eyebrow maintainence, coz that’s all people can see! 3 Mini | | Jan 16 || Feb 16 || Mar 16 || April 16 || July-Aug 16 || Aug-Sep 16 . || Sep-Oct 16 || Oct-Nov 16 || Dec 16 || Jan 17 || March 17 || April 17 || May 17 || August 17 || Sep 17 || Oct 17 || Grind it out || Jan 18 || Feb 18 || April 18 || May June 18 || Nov 18 || Oct 19 || Early 2020 || Halfway thru 2020 || Yasha High-5s herself || Jan 2023 || Current Challenge: Yasha holds steady (Feb-Mar 2023) Link to comment
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