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5 hours ago, Scaly Freak said:

 

Actually, the fact no one can see that I'm not smiling at them is one of my favorite things about masks...

 

SAME, it makes my Resting Bitch Face a little easier to pass off...

 

I also talk (softly) to myself a LOT when I'm shopping, grocery store or otherwise, and pre-covid I've been caught by people quietly showing up near me while I'm stream of consciousness considering the cans of beans in front of me, "gee I like the flavor of black beans but these pintos are just much more hearty" -- and wearing a mask DEFINITELY keeps me from getting caught anymore, heheh~

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On 1/2/2021 at 8:21 PM, sarakingdom said:

 

Yeah, absolutely. The difference between personal risk and population risk is hard to grasp. The personal risk of dying might be like 1%, but if so, that's like 3 million people if we all get it, and the country won't cope with that, financially or socially. For every person who dies of covid, there are 18 who have strokes. That's 54 million. If you can reduce the number of cases by 10%, that's huge already. Then reduce the likelihood of hospitalisation, death, stroke, etc. by a further 10%, and that's even more. If masks cut risk by 30% (one person wearing) or 90% (both people wearing), that's not "they don't work" because it's not 100% reduced risk to you personally, that's huge.

 

It's a big frustration I have with people's risk assessment locally. And, if we're honest, some of that is people's willingness to care about non-personal risk. Which is bad personal risk assessment, IMO, because the population risk comes back to bite us personally. The collective cost to the economy of people surviving covid is going to be more expensive than the cost of people dying of it, which isn't  going to be cheap, either. And at the most basic level, if you reduce the population risk, there's a better chance that the health care system will have resources to treat you with the best care when you need it, improving your personal risk.

 

I don't think most people actually  conduct any actual risk assessment at all. Like, you'll have guys who carry around a gun every day, but don't carry a first-aid kit or even a tourniquet, which they are more likely to use, or a fire extinguisher/seatbelt cutter/glass breaker in their vehicle.  On the other hand, firearms in the house make people so nervous but they won't bat an eye over the death trap that we call a 'swimming pool.' I only know of one guy who  chronically assesses risk, and his anxiety is so bad we have roughly the same level of [dys]functionality despite him being way smarter and more skilled than I am. Actually thinking about it can drive one insane.😅

 

  

12 hours ago, shaar said:

 

SAME, it makes my Resting Bitch Face a little easier to pass off...

 

I also talk (softly) to myself a LOT when I'm shopping, grocery store or otherwise, and pre-covid I've been caught by people quietly showing up near me while I'm stream of consciousness considering the cans of beans in front of me, "gee I like the flavor of black beans but these pintos are just much more hearty" -- and wearing a mask DEFINITELY keeps me from getting caught anymore, heheh~

 

YES! Haha

 

I'm in Florida, where I believe the origin story of the anti-maskers came from. I always wonder what everyone is complaining about; you wear a mask and some mirrored sunglasses and you're essentially wearing a disguise. Take that, Target self-checkout camera that makes me look like a creepy pervert for some reason. And while I'm shopping I nobody can see the weird faces that I involuntarily make, nor can they prove that I am the one singing along to "I Want It That Way." I can also sometimes get away with silent farts in public.  Sometimes.

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20 hours ago, shaar said:

I also talk (softly) to myself a LOT when I'm shopping, grocery store or otherwise, and pre-covid I've been caught by people quietly showing up near me while I'm stream of consciousness considering the cans of beans in front of me, "gee I like the flavor of black beans but these pintos are just much more hearty" -- and wearing a mask DEFINITELY keeps me from getting caught anymore, heheh~

I used to call my mom in the grocery store a lot because I couldn't make that black beans vs pinto beans decision without running it past someone. 😅 I talk to myself at all times, and I had not considered that the mask masks that...yet another hidden benefit...

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9 hours ago, Machete said:

I don't think most people actually  conduct any actual risk assessment at all.

 

From my super risk-averse-person point of view, I can confirm :D

 

Then again, that is also partially overshadowed (to the other end) by being brainwashed by my parents that always went: "The odds can be 1 in a million, if you are the one in an accident, or attacked or whatever, the odds don't matter!" :o 

 

So wear slippers in the swimming pool area, don't look at the light bulb when trying if it works (glass can break) and so on 😅

 

Solid argument :D It's interesting because people DO think that way when they buy a lottery ticket. Yet not in the negative sense. Oh well 😁

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8 hours ago, Machete said:

On the other hand, firearms in the house make people so nervous but they won't bat an eye over the death trap that we call a 'swimming pool.' I only know of one guy who  chronically assesses risk, and his anxiety is so bad we have roughly the same level of [dys]functionality despite him being way smarter and more skilled than I am. Actually thinking about it can drive one insane.😅

 

At the risk of offending, if constant risk assessment causes anxiety, it's not being done correctly. For the vast majority of people in the United States, for example, regular every-day risk assessments should arrive at the conclusion "Risk level: Acceptably low" almost all the time. 

 

Sure, a swimming pool could be considered a death trap, but what are the actual odds of me drowning in the pool at the gym? How likely is that really to happen?  There's a big difference between being aware of risks and avoiding them, and fixating on them to the point they cause anxiety. 

 

Personally I assess risk levels almost everywhere I go, because in the urban jungle women are prey, and a certain rare kind of male human predator takes great pleasure in hunting us. Does this mean I am anxious and afraid of strange men everywhere I go? Of course not. That would be as impractical as it is paranoid. Risk assessment becomes useless if it's not realistic and reasonable... and when it's done correctly it doesn't cause anxiety at all. It keeps us safe.

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15 minutes ago, Scaly Freak said:

Risk assessment becomes useless if it's not realistic and reasonable...

 

Mm yes! It is also counterproductive to raise the risk by becoming panicked (in a reasonable/rational assessment) since that does not allow you to react appropriately & proportionately. 🙂

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This discussion reminds me of the book I’ve just finished “becoming bulletproof”. Written by an ex secret service agent who survived 9/11, has a whole section on risk assessment and how to lower risk without going crazy (eh where to sit in a cinema or restaurant etc). Pretty good read.

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24 minutes ago, Yasha92 said:

how to lower risk without going crazy 

 

Why do I suspect it will have a lot in common with advise given to single women who live alone in a very urban setting...? 😇

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8 minutes ago, Scaly Freak said:

 

Why do I suspect it will have a lot in common with advise given to single women who live alone in a very urban setting...? 😇

Because that’s the target audience methinks XD 

I liked it though, and because the author is a woman the advice seemed more palatable and less patronising, plus some of it I had never heard before.

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5 hours ago, Scaly Freak said:

At the risk of offending, if constant risk assessment causes anxiety, it's not being done correctly. For the vast majority of people in the United States, for example, regular every-day risk assessments should arrive at the conclusion "Risk level: Acceptably low" almost all the time. 

 

Which is another common failure of risk assessment, IMO. We're statistically the safest we've ever been in this country (barring covid, I guess), so if risk assessment is telling the average person that the world is dangerous out there or that we'd be safer if things were like they used to be... well, I don't think they understand the average person's risk.

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21 minutes ago, sarakingdom said:

 

Which is another common failure of risk assessment, IMO. We're statistically the safest we've ever been in this country (barring covid, I guess), so if risk assessment is telling the average person that the world is dangerous out there or that we'd be safer if things were like they used to be... well, I don't think they understand the average person's risk.

 

One of the side-effects of a sheltered and perfectly safe life is the lack of opportunities to learn how to do risk assessments properly. 

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“I've always believed that failure is non-existent. What is failure? You go to the end of the season, then you lose the Super Bowl. Is that failing? To most people, maybe. But when you're picking apart why you failed, and now you're learning from that, then is that really failing? I don't think so." - Kobe Bryant, 1978-2020. Rest in peace, great warrior.

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20 minutes ago, sarakingdom said:

 

Which is another common failure of risk assessment, IMO. We're statistically the safest we've ever been in this country (barring covid, I guess), so if risk assessment is telling the average person that the world is dangerous out there or that we'd be safer if things were like they used to be... well, I don't think they understand the average person's risk.

My thinking is, if things were like the “good old days”, we’d be even more screwed.

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9 times out of 10 what people think of as the good old days were when they were kids.  Which seemed safe and carefree for many.

 

I do types of risk assessments for work and people often see things differently than the data.  They want to use feeeelings.  *shivers*

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2 minutes ago, jenglish said:

I do types of risk assessments for work and people often see things differently than the data.  They want to use feeeelings.  *shivers*

 

Now that's just unsettling.

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“I've always believed that failure is non-existent. What is failure? You go to the end of the season, then you lose the Super Bowl. Is that failing? To most people, maybe. But when you're picking apart why you failed, and now you're learning from that, then is that really failing? I don't think so." - Kobe Bryant, 1978-2020. Rest in peace, great warrior.

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17 hours ago, Machete said:

nor can they prove that I am the one singing along to "I Want It That Way."

And that's what is most important!

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9 hours ago, Athena said:

From my super risk-averse-person point of view, I can confirm :D

 

Then again, that is also partially overshadowed (to the other end) by being brainwashed by my parents that always went: "The odds can be 1 in a million, if you are the one in an accident, or attacked or whatever, the odds don't matter!" :o 

 

So wear slippers in the swimming pool area, don't look at the light bulb when trying if it works (glass can break) and so on 😅

 

Solid argument :D It's interesting because people DO think that way when they buy a lottery ticket. Yet not in the negative sense. Oh well 😁

 

Yeah, I think it's like loss aversion or something, right? I'm horrible at it, I didn't even think of the breaking bulbs. I guess wear glasses now? I mean I'm still filling out these internet raffles I keep not winning.

 

9 hours ago, Scaly Freak said:

At the risk of offending, if constant risk assessment causes anxiety, it's not being done correctly. For the vast majority of people in the United States, for example, regular every-day risk assessments should arrive at the conclusion "Risk level: Acceptably low" almost all the time. 

 

Sure, a swimming pool could be considered a death trap, but what are the actual odds of me drowning in the pool at the gym? How likely is that really to happen?  There's a big difference between being aware of risks and avoiding them, and fixating on them to the point they cause anxiety. 

 

Personally I assess risk levels almost everywhere I go, because in the urban jungle women are prey, and a certain rare kind of male human predator takes great pleasure in hunting us. Does this mean I am anxious and afraid of strange men everywhere I go? Of course not. That would be as impractical as it is paranoid. Risk assessment becomes useless if it's not realistic and reasonable... and when it's done correctly it doesn't cause anxiety at all. It keeps us safe.

 

You're fine, I don't think his anxiety was caused by it; I'm thinking it's more the opposite. And I am quite certain that I am not doing it correctly as I never seem to be in the appropriate state of situational awareness--I'm either ready to get jumped at the organic foods section at Target, or I'm daydreaming on a foot patrol in Afghanistan. "You seem really calm under stress." "No, I'm just stupid and neurotic."

 

Re: the pool thing, I was talking about children under 10, and that drowning vs. firearm statistic discussed on Freakonomics. 

 

8 hours ago, Yasha92 said:

This discussion reminds me of the book I’ve just finished “becoming bulletproof”. Written by an ex secret service agent who survived 9/11, has a whole section on risk assessment and how to lower risk without going crazy (eh where to sit in a cinema or restaurant etc). Pretty good read.

 

I think I've heard of it on a reading list. I went through a self-defense instructor course that talked about stuff like that--predator psychology and making oneself a "hard target" that's ultimately not worth the trouble.  It covered mindset, public places, home, automobile, tech security, etc. What I liked was the lack of actual techniques, and more emphasis on finding a place to train and making the commitment to keep training. I never really ended up teaching because of how much I don't trust my own situational awareness; it just seems disingenuous.

 

3 hours ago, jenglish said:

9 times out of 10 what people think of as the good old days were when they were kids.  Which seemed safe and carefree for many.

 

I do types of risk assessments for work and people often see things differently than the data.  They want to use feeeelings.  *shivers*

 

Would it be survivor bias too? Looking back I'm surprised I made it out of my childhood. I made some stupid decisions. 😅

 

Aren't feelings the whole point of having pros such as yourself do the assessing though? Like, humans are naturally fear-or-f*ck motivated, and we have to bypass biology every time we assess, so instead we created the specialization so all we'll have to do is follow instructions.

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14 hours ago, Athena said:

It's interesting because people DO think that way when they buy a lottery ticket. Yet not in the negative sense. Oh well 😁

 

If there's one thing I've learned working in insurance, it's that people are optimists. They might now talk like it, but most people genuinely believe that the worst won't happen to them, and that that lottery ticket might just be their one big break.

 

I don't think there's necessarily anything wrong with that by the way. We might not have got very far as a species if we lived in constant fear that we would die in a freak accident at any moment.

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7 hours ago, Machete said:

 

 

Re: the pool thing, I was talking about children under 10, and that drowning vs. firearm statistic discussed on Freakonomics. 

 

 

 

Would it be survivor bias too? Looking back I'm surprised I made it out of my childhood. I made some stupid decisions. 😅

 

Aren't feelings the whole point of having pros such as yourself do the assessing though? Like, humans are naturally fear-or-f*ck motivated, and we have to bypass biology every time we assess, so instead we created the specialization so all we'll have to do is follow instructions.


One of the issues with that comparison in Freakanomics is that it is very narrowly defined to only accidents and a very specific age group and it gets extrapolated to “pools are more dangerous than guns.” The data is less clear there. Or some would say clear the other direction if we look at total death. Interesting  data for sure but likely over-interpreted.

 

as for what people are wanting from an expert opinion it’s usually to be validated in what they already think :lol:

 

In this case what they really want is a prediction on an n=1.  Nobody can do that but that’s what people really want to know. Will I have a heart attack is more important than out of 1,000 people with my risk factors how many will have a heart attack.

 

 

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58 minutes ago, jenglish said:

Damn, did I break this thread? 😂 Who knew my social awkwardness translated to text

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On 1/6/2021 at 6:47 AM, jenglish said:

One of the issues with that comparison in Freakanomics is that it is very narrowly defined to only accidents and a very specific age group and it gets extrapolated to “pools are more dangerous than guns.” The data is less clear there. Or some would say clear the other direction if we look at total death. Interesting  data for sure but likely over-interpreted.

 

Three kinds of lies.... 

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“I've always believed that failure is non-existent. What is failure? You go to the end of the season, then you lose the Super Bowl. Is that failing? To most people, maybe. But when you're picking apart why you failed, and now you're learning from that, then is that really failing? I don't think so." - Kobe Bryant, 1978-2020. Rest in peace, great warrior.

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